THE NAVIGATOR
APRIL 2025
SHIFTING SANDS: US RETREAT AND CHINA’S ADVANCE
By Dr. Manali Kumar, Editor-in-Chief at 9DASHLINE
April saw the Indo-Pacific grappling with persistent geopolitical competition, marked by major power rivalry, economic pressures, and unpredictable foreign policy shifts. The Trump administration’s coercive rhetoric and high tariffs, impacting even key allies and partners, have heightened doubts about the US’ reliability and deepened uncertainty in the region. Yet, the administration’s push to reshape regional dynamics risks backfiring — coercive measures may drive partners closer to Beijing, allowing China to fill the strategic void left by a retreating US.
In this context, our two briefs this month examine how regional actors are strategically adjusting to these challenges. The first explores the strategic implications of deepening economic ties between Japan, South Korea, and China, as these countries renew trilateral engagement following Trump’s tariffs. The second brief reviews Myanmar’s worsening crisis post-earthquake, where China has stepped up support in the absence of US assistance.
The Indo-Pacific is undergoing a geopolitical realignment. In South Asia, India is strengthening ties with Sri Lanka and the US while addressing renewed tensions with Pakistan; meanwhile, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan face economic and political turmoil. Southeast Asia is responding to US tariffs by diversifying partnerships with China and Russia. East Asia is experiencing political upheaval, while Japan and Taiwan assert their autonomy in the face of Chinese pressure. In the Pacific, regional cooperation on security, labour, and sustainability is growing—even as China extends its influence through economic partnerships.
April highlighted the multifaceted pressures reshaping the Indo-Pacific — from major power competition and economic resilience to domestic crises and human rights challenges. In case you missed it, this month’s episode of our podcast, produced in cooperation with the European Parliament in ASEAN, explores seismic developments across the region — from the devastating earthquake that struck Myanmar and Thailand to the ICC warrant for Duterte’s arrest. As the established order continues to be tested, The Navigator remains committed to providing in-depth analysis on these transformative trends. Subscribe today to stay informed.
EAST ASIA RETHINKS US TIES
By Emma Whitmyer, Senior Program Officer, Asia Society Policy Institute
Recent weeks have been marked by uncertainty as countries navigate the Trump administration’s new tariffs; most notably, US allies like South Korea and Japan were hit with an additional 25 per cent and 24 per cent tariff on top of the existing 10 per cent blanket tariffs. Although a 90-day pause on new tariffs is in effect, it remains unclear what deals could emerge by July, and if Trump will honour them in the future.
In response, South Korea, Japan, and China have renewed diplomatic engagement, with their foreign and trade ministers meeting in March for their first economic dialogue in five years. Amid the ever-changing tariffs being imposed, they agreed to “closely cooperate for a comprehensive and high-level" dialogue. South Korean Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun even suggested creating “a framework for expanding trade cooperation among the three countries through Korea-China-Japan FTA negotiations”.
While not entirely unexpected, this trilateral meeting comes amid increasing scepticism about the future of trade and security ties with the United States. Although Japan and South Korea are unlikely to abandon their security alliances with the US, Trump’s transactional approach and history of renegotiating agreements risk undermining trust — something not easily restored. This unpredictability raises questions about how deeper economic cooperation with China could shape coordination on regional challenges.
If ties with China deepen, South Korea and Japan could become less willing to cooperate on shared challenges, such as human rights, export controls, and military actions that risk retaliation (i.e. South Korea’s THAAD deployment). China would welcome this shift. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs could strain their economies and make increased defence spending harder to justify. It could mean choosing between supporting US-led strategies and access to Chinese markets.
For more analysis on the future of the US’ alliances in Northeast Asia, read Emma Whitmyer’s recent article for 9DASHLINE here.
QUAKE DEEPENS MYANMAR’S CRISIS
By Dr. Hunter Marston, Southeast Asia Associate at 9DASHLINE
A 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar on 28 March, killing thousands and displacing many more. Sagaing and Mandalay suffered the severest impact, with the capital Naypyidaw withstanding extensive damage. As of 19 April, the death toll had reached 3,726, according to state-run media.
The disaster has compounded the already dire humanitarian crisis across the war-torn country. More than four years after a military coup, the UN estimates that 3.5 million people in Myanmar remain displaced, another 20 million need assistance, and nearly half the population has fallen below the poverty line.
The day after the earthquake, the opposition National Unity Government announced a temporary pause on military offensives. The military also declared a state of emergency and called for international assistance, announcing its own three-week ceasefire to focus on reconstruction — though it has continued to bomb affected areas of Sagaing indiscriminately.
International organisations and countries, including India, China, Russia, Singapore, and Thailand, sent teams to assist rescue and recovery efforts. The United States has been conspicuously absent since the Trump administration fired all remaining staff at the US Agency for International Development the previous week. The US pledged an additional USD 7 million to their original USD 2million, bringing their total to USD 9 million in assistance through local organisations, significantly less than Beijing’s pledge of USD 14 million.
Myanmar’s military has restricted assistance, while significant damage to infrastructure and ongoing aftershocks have further limited access for aid. The junta has also leveraged regional diplomacy to boost its own credibility.
Last week, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing met with various officials in Bangkok to discuss relief efforts. The humanitarian catastrophe and ongoing civil war are unlikely to alter Min Aung Hlaing’s calculations. The junta remains committed to holding elections in December. However, resistance groups show no sign of laying down their weapons or negotiating with the military, so the elections largely represent an intra-elite political bargain within the armed forces and pro-military factions.
ACROSS THE INDO-PACIFIC
South Asia
In early April, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Sri Lanka for the first time since the new Dissanayake government took office. Several agreements on energy cooperation and defence were signed to shore up ties, and a 120 MW solar power plant was also inaugurated. Amid heightened security measures marking the anniversary of the 2019 Easter Sunday bombings, a gunman opened fire at a church in Sri Lanka. The Catholic community in Sri Lanka has accused successive governments of protecting the accused through a complex and stretched trial process.
US Vice President JD Vance visited India this month, meeting with the Prime Minister and speaking in Jaipur on Indo-US ties, focusing particularly on the strategic convergence between India and the US as well as the issue of tariffs. Deliberations were reportedly held over a new trade deal which aims to increase bilateral trade to USD 500 billion by 2030 from USD 129 billion in 2024. This week, a deadly terror attack on 22 April in Pahalgam, Kashmir, killed 26 people — the worst such incident since the 2019 Pulwama bombing — prompting Modi to cut short his trip to Saudi Arabia. Suspecting Pakistan’s involvement in the attack, New Delhi has suspended the Indus Water Treaty and closed the Attari border.
In a move against the growing royalist movement, Nepal’s government has downsized King Gyanendra’s security detail, following reports of clashes and violence across the country. Meanwhile, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (Nepal’s royalist party) has called for a protest in a restricted zone near the parliament, demanding the release of its leaders and the restoration of the monarchy.
The United States has issued a travel advisory for its citizens travelling to Bangladesh, citing heightened risks due to ongoing civil unrest. At the same time, concerns are mounting in Dhaka over potential economic slowdown. Amid political uncertainty and a deepening financial crisis, the World Bank has revised Bangladesh’s growth projection for 2024-25 down to 3.3 per cent. Meanwhile, a tentative thaw is emerging in Pakistan-Bangladesh ties after 15 years, with the resumption of foreign office consultations. Still, Dhaka continues to press Islamabad for an official apology and possible compensation for the atrocities committed in 1971.
In Pakistan, inter-provincial tensions are rising after the Punjab state government launched the Green Pakistan Initiative in Cholistan. The project proposes building six canals across the Indus River system to support agricultural expansion. However, Sindh, a lower riparian province, has strongly opposed the move, warning that the already-stressed Indus could face severe water shortages as a result.
Southeast Asia
President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, hitting countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia with rates as high as 46-49 per cent, pose a major threat to Southeast Asia’s export-driven economies, particularly Vietnam’s ambitions to become a high-tech upper-income country by 2045. With exports to the US comprising about 30 per cent of Vietnam’s GDP and 25 per cent of Cambodia’s, the tariffs jeopardise millions of jobs and the political stability of regimes that rely on economic performance for legitimacy. In response, Vietnam and others are urgently seeking new trade deals, offering the US concessions and scrambling to mitigate the economic fallout before the tariffs take full effect in July.
Amid these trade tensions and growing doubts about American leadership, Indonesia is deepening engagement with US adversaries. Jakarta’s recent agreement with Beijing, which includes joint infrastructure development, law enforcement coordination, and upcoming counterterrorism exercises, demonstrates a pragmatic effort to manage tensions while securing economic and strategic benefits. Simultaneously, Indonesia’s quiet talks with Russia over potential access to an air force base in West Papua — putting Russian aircraft within range of northern Australia — underscore its increasingly non-aligned posture.
During his visit to the Philippines, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that the Trump administration will strengthen deterrence against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea by expanding military cooperation with Manila. This includes new troop deployments and expanded joint exercises such as Balikatan, the flagship annual US-Philippines training operation. Hegseth criticised the Biden administration for what he described as weakening US resolve, reaffirmed America’s defence commitments, and emphasised a strategy of peace through strength. Philippine officials welcomed the deepening alliance amid rising regional tensions and intensifying Chinese assertiveness.
East Asia
In South Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law and subsequent impeachment — unanimously upheld by the Constitutional Court on 4 April — has brought domestic turmoil and clouded the direction of the nation’s foreign policy. Nevertheless, Seoul continues to engage actively with Washington which includes trade negotiations and joint efforts to curb transhipments of foreign goods, particularly from China. A snap presidential election on 3 June will be pivotal in determining South Korea’s strategic direction — whether by pursuing a more autonomous foreign policy or reinforcing traditional alliances.
Japanese warships made a historic visit to Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base — the first since its Chinese-funded upgrade — just one day after Xi Jinping concluded his state visit. The timing and symbolism of the visit underscore Japan’s role as a trusted and reliable partner for regional players seeking to preserve strategic autonomy amid the intensifying US-China rivalry. Separately, in an interview with Nikkei Asia, former PM Fumio Kishida said that while Japan must realistically engage with a transactional US, as an island nation with few natural resources it also has a vital interest in free trade, rule of law, and democratic norms, and must work with like-minded countries to uphold them in an era of rising protectionism and geopolitical uncertainty.
Meanwhile, China is positioning itself as a stable partner and upholder of the global trading order in contrast to the US. While Xi Jinping's Southeast Asian tour — his first overseas trip of the year — yielded a flurry of agreements, it is uncertain whether China can truly capitalise on US actions in a region not only wary of over dependence on any single partner but also requiring access to strong consumer markets like the US — something China will not provide. While Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has called for the EU and UK to uphold the multilateral trading system, China’s overcapacity issue limits the extent to which they can integrate into a Beijing dominated trading regime, calling into question the extent to which China might fill a strategic vacuum left by the US.
In Hong Kong, the Democratic Party — the territory’s last remaining major opposition party — approved a motion to disband this month amid Beijing’s sweeping national security crackdown, underscoring the significant erosion of civil liberties and political freedoms. Speaking to AFP, former Chair Emily Lau urged Hong Kongers to remember their cause.
In Taiwan, political tensions are reaching fever pitch as the KMT, which holds a legislative majority in alliance with the smaller TPP, faces the loss of more than a dozen lawmakers and its majority as part of a mass recall movement. The civil society-led campaign stems from public frustration over the party’s perceived deference to Beijing and its role in obstructing efforts to forge a united front against Chinese aggression. The KMT is now entering election mode, rallying around a familiar message of defending democracy against “DPP authoritarianism” — a strategy used against previous DPP administrations. Whether this rhetoric will resonate with voters, however, remains uncertain. The extent of the KMT’s vulnerability will become clearer next month.
The Pacific
Pacific nations are ramping up regional cooperation on security, labour mobility, and shared governance. The Cook Islands and the Solomon Islands are developing a labour mobility agreement to address healthcare sector shortages. The Solomon Islands has also publicly endorsed reforms to strengthen Pacific Islands Forum unity and streamlined regional decision-making. Meanwhile, Papua New Guinea Defence Force engineers participated in Exercise Croix du Sud in New Caledonia and Wallis and Futuna, focusing on humanitarian assistance and disaster response coordination. Palau reinforced its security posture by deporting sixteen Chinese nationals linked to illegal fishing and cybercrime, in line with broader US-backed regional security frameworks. Tuvalu and Taiwan signed two agreements to enhance labour cooperation, including mutual recognition of seafarers' certificates and training programs.
Infrastructure and economic development remain top priorities across the region. Fiji continues to receive Chinese support for infrastructure and economic development, while Samoa is grappling with an energy crisis caused by ageing grid infrastructure and cyclone damage, prompting the government to seek urgent funding from the Asian Development Bank and Japan. Kiribati is negotiating a deep-sea mining partnership with China to exploit polymetallic nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, raising environmental and sovereignty concerns, even as New Zealand is conducting a confidential review of its aid program to Kiribati amid concerns over growing Chinese influence.
Several Pacific nations are also navigating domestic transitions and sustainability goals. New Caledonia will resume independence talks on 25 April, though tensions persist between pro-France loyalists and Kanak independence groups over voter eligibility reforms. The Marshall Islands joined the Pacific Sustainability Network, committing to 100 per cent renewable energy by 2035, supported by USD 50 million in international grants. Meanwhile, Niue celebrated a milestone in tourism and connectivity with its first commercial night flight in over a decade. Media leaders in Papua New Guinea and Tonga met to discuss shared challenges, including press freedom and disinformation campaigns.
New Zealand and the United Kingdom are advancing their defence partnership with new agreements on cybersecurity, intelligence sharing, and joint naval deployments in the Indo-Pacific. Wellington abstained from a global shipping emissions pledge due to concerns about economic impacts on its dairy export sector, highlighting divisions among Pacific nations on environmental commitments. With the broader Indo-Pacific security environment shaped by the United States’ intensification of its “second island chain” defence strategy, the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group departed Guam for joint exercises with Japan and South Korea. Australia is set to host Exercise Talisman Sabre in July, which will involve thirteen nations in scenarios simulating high-intensity conflict in contested maritime zones. An Australian National Security College report raised concerns about AUKUS program cost overruns exceeding AUD 200 billion and questioned US reliability amid political volatility in Washington.
THE BEST OF 9DASHLINE
In case you missed them, this month’s 9DASHLINE articles continue to chart the complex currents shaping the Indo-Pacific’s future. From potential shifts in U.S. regional strategy under a second Trump administration and China’s careful manoeuvring in conflict-stricken Myanmar, to Vietnam’s urgent battle against marine plastic pollution and Turkey’s growing engagement with ASEAN, our latest pieces offer a broad range of diverse perspectives.
TRUMP’S SECOND CHANCE TO MAKE A FIRST IMPRESSION IN ASIA
Despite bipartisan consensus on the Indo-Pacific's importance, Chris Estep (former Senior Advisor to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs) criticises the second Trump administration's inconsistent approach to China, marked by softened stances on TikTok and tariffs, and delayed foreign assistance.
Estep urges Trump to issue a clear National Security Strategic Guidance document, prioritising competition with China and outlining policy priorities. He also calls for strengthened alliances through high-level meetings and swift military aid to regional partners, while Congress should assert oversight through hearings and budget reviews.
CHINA IS HEDGING IN MYANMAR BY LEVERAGING ITS INFLUENCE
Following the 2021 coup in Myanmar, Chetan Rana (Senior Editor, 9DASHLINE) highlights China as a key external actor navigating the complex instability. While the junta relies on China for international support, Beijing prioritises protecting its significant economic and strategic interests, including energy pipelines and rare earth mineral supply chains, which are threatened by the ongoing civil war. China pursues a hedging strategy by engaging with the junta, the ousted NLD, and various Ethnic Armed Organisations.
Rana emphasises that despite Myanmar's isolation pushing it closer to China, the relationship is complex, with local actors both cooperating and competing with Beijing.
WAVES OF WASTE: ADDRESSING VIETNAM’S MARINE PLASTIC POLLUTION CHALLENGE
Following Vietnam's Prime Minister's 2018 G7 pledge to combat marine plastic pollution, Thu Nguyen Hoang Anh (Blue Security Fellow, La Trobe University) highlights the persistent crisis plaguing the nation's waters. Vietnam remains a major contributor to global marine plastic waste, with plastics comprising 80 per cent of the debris.
Anh details the detrimental impacts on coastal communities, marine ecosystems, and even human health, emphasising that without significant systemic changes in waste management, legal frameworks, and plastic consumption, the situation will worsen.
NEW PARTNERS FOR THE INDO-PACIFIC: TURKEY-ASEAN RELATIONS AMID INCREASING GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
Following Turkey's post-Cold War outreach to Eurasia, Dr. Selçuk Çolakoğlu (Founding Director, Turkish Centre for Asia-Pacific Studies) examines Ankara's deepening engagement with Southeast Asia, marked by a growing emphasis on its Asian identity and the establishment of regional organisations. Turkey's pursuit of closer ties with ASEAN, including its Sectoral Dialogue Partnership, reflects a strategic move to capitalise on Asia's economic rise, evidenced by a significant increase in trade volume.
Çolakoğlu highlights Turkey's unique geostrategic position as a bridge between Europe and Asia, offering ASEAN potential partnerships with both Western and Eastern powers and a possible role as a regional facilitator.
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The Navigator is produced by:
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