SEPTEMBER 2024
FROM ELECTIONS TO ENGAGEMENT: THE EVOLVING INDO-PACIFIC LANDSCAPE
By Dr Manali Kumar, Editor-in-Chief at 9DASHLINE
Welcome to the September edition of The Navigator — 9DASHLINE’s flagship newsletter, bringing you critical updates from across the Indo-Pacific. This month, we track significant political, economic, and security developments as regional powers continue to adapt to shifting global dynamics.
In our first issue brief, we delve into the recent presidential election in Sri Lanka, where Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the JVP, secured a historic victory. The election marks a new era for Sri Lanka, with the Marxist politician’s leadership raising questions about the country’s economic future and foreign policy, especially in relation to the IMF and China. Next, we examine the UK’s decision to appoint Jonathan Powell as a special envoy to negotiate sovereignty of the Chagos Islands in a long-running dispute with Mauritius. This move could reshape Britain’s strategic role in the Indian Ocean, balancing post-colonial justice with the realities of maintaining US military access to Diego Garcia.
Our Region Review section covers a broad range of key updates. In South Asia, we look at India’s evolving role within the Quad, Pakistan’s new intelligence chief faces security challenges, and dramatic political changes in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Meanwhile, Indonesia is bolstering its naval capabilities and exploring new economic partnerships, potentially realigning its interests closer to the US. East Asia remains fraught with tensions as Japan-China relations worsen and Taiwan navigates internal debates over national security. In the Pacific Islands, discussions around seabed mining, cyberattacks, and sovereignty continue to shape the future of the region, as key players such as New Caledonia and Tuvalu seek to assert their rights while adapting to global challenges.
Don't miss our latest podcast episode: A New Era for the Global South: And the Pope Brings a Message of Hope. Together with the European Parliament in ASEAN, we delve into EU-ASEAN relations and shifting great power rivalry through the lens of the Global South. Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy and Richard Heydarian are joined by special guest Sriparna Pathak to explore these dynamics and their impact on regional and global orders. We also highlight Pope Francis’ recent visit to Asia and the Pacific, discussing its geopolitical, cultural, and diplomatic significance.
Stay informed with The Navigator as we bring you expert insights and in-depth analysis of the most pressing developments across the Indo-Pacific.
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SRI LANKA’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Dr Bhagya Senaratne, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, New York University Shanghai
On 21 September, over 70 per cent of the Sri Lankan electorate – including many ex-pats who flew back to the country – voted to elect their ninth president. According to Sri Lanka’s Election Commission, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the 55-year-old leader of the People’s Liberation Front (JVP) party and the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance, won the presidency with 42.31 per cent of the vote. Dissanayake took his oath of office at the Presidential Secretariat on 23 September.
A Marxist-leaning politician, Dissanayake is the first JVP president of Sri Lanka. Although he secured a majority by campaigning on promises to tackle corruption and reform politics, the older generation remains cautious about his party’s rule given the JVP-led insurrections in 1971 and later in 1987. These uprisings, which armed and mobilised unemployed youth against the government, are remembered as dark periods in Sri Lanka’s history. Though ultimately unsuccessful, they brought chaos, instability, and fear. Many young people died or disappeared, and those who lived through the 1987-89 insurrection fear the country could face similar anarchy under JVP leadership. However, Dissanayake has publicly apologised for the JVP's past actions and insists the party has evolved since the days of its former leader, Rohana Wijeweera. Throughout his campaign, Dissanayake refrained from using divisive religious or ethnic rhetoric, instead promoting inclusivilty toward minorities.
The NPP coalition’s lack of governance experience is another point of concern. However, Dr Harini Amarasuriya, the new prime minister, has stated that while the NPP may lack experience in tackling corruption and malpractice, it will gain experience in rebuilding the country. This government’s optimism is evident in its swift formation of a Cabinet of Ministers and secretaries, signalling eagerness to begin work. The appointment of a female prime minister, the first since Sirimavo Bandaranaike's third term 24 years ago, has also been favourably received. Nevertheless, some critics argue that the NPP’s progress has been slow, suggesting internal structural issues, particularly with the JVP’s dominance within the coalition.
Although the campaign promise to eradicate corruption is commendable, there are growing concerns about how the new government will handle key issues such as negotiating terms with the IMF and shaping Sri Lanka's foreign policy. While it is too early to draw firm conclusions, there is a possibility that the administration may adopt a more nationalistic stance or align more closely with China, given the JVP's Marxist roots. Closer ties with China, however, could harm Sri Lanka’s volatile economy, which is heavily dependent on the next tranche of IMF funding. It is therefore in Dissanayake’s best interest to engage with the US, the IMF, and India to ensure ongoing discussions around economic stability.
THE CHAGOS ISLANDS: THE UK’S INDO-PACIFIC DILEMMA
David MacSweeney, Founder at 9DASHLINE
The UK has appointed Jonathan Powell, a former Northern Ireland peace negotiator, as the Prime Minister’s Special Envoy to negotiate sovereignty of the Chagos Islands which are also claimed by Mauritius. This move could significantly reshape Britain’s geostrategic position in the Indian Ocean and have major implications for the wider Indo-Pacific.
Under the leadership of Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer, the move marks a clear shift from previous administrations, which resisted significant international pressure to give up control of the archipelago. Years of economic stagnation, political turmoil, and the impact of Brexit are forcing Britain to reassess its place in the world. However, returning the islands, while righting a historical wrong in the form of post-colonial justice, cannot ignore the geopolitical impact due to the archipelago’s strategic location.
Forcibly depopulated in the 1960s to make way for a US-UK military base, ownership of the Chagos Archipelago has long been a point of contention. Mauritius has consistently sought the return of the islands, however, the base on Diego Garcia remains central to US military strategy, supporting operations and providing logistical capabilities across the Middle East and Asia. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the UN General Assembly have previously ruled in favour of Mauritius, urging the UK to relinquish its claim. The islands' strategic value has impeded the UK's ability to comply with these rulings, due to its need to maintain key defence partnerships, especially with the US.
Starmer’s government appears keen to resolve the dispute, seeing it as an opportunity to address colonial injustice and boost the UK’s global standing by upholding international law. However, balancing obligations to Mauritius with the strategic need to maintain US access to Diego Garcia will pose major diplomatic and security challenges. Any handover will likely involve complex negotiations, potentially leading to a long-term lease protecting US interests while recognising Mauritian sovereignty, and reshaping power dynamics in the Indian Ocean.
As China and India expand their power projection, Mauritius could soon become a key regional actor. While the US may keep its base, the islands' return might well drive new security arrangements, possibly involving India, reducing British influence and marking a shift toward a multipolar Indian Ocean. Any settlement of the Chagos Islands issue will ultimately require a delicate balancing act — between addressing historical injustices and the reality of strategic imperatives.
ACROSS THE INDO-PACIFIC
South Asia
In Pakistan, Lt Gen. Muhammad Asim Malik has been appointed the new Director-General of Pakistan’s spy agency, the Inter-Service Intelligence. Given the ISI's central role in managing the state, he will be busy reassuring Beijing about the security of its projects, while also seeking a solution to the Balochistan crisis. Formal notice from India to review the terms of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) will further complicate cross-border relations. Previously, Islamabad has flagged the Kishanganga and Baglihar projects as against the treaty. In response, Foreign Office Spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said that all issues can be discussed within the existing framework of the treaty.
India’s union cabinet has approved the controversial ‘One Nation, One Election’ plan to hold state and general elections simultaneously, though it won’t affect the upcoming state elections. Meanwhile, Jammu and Kashmir is holding its first legislative elections since the abrogation of Article 370, with traditional parties struggling to survive as new political actors vie to represent the people.
Finally, South Asia continues to see power shifts, with the Marxist Dissanayake of JVP winning Sri Lanka's presidential election, following the weakened return of Narendra Mod in India in June and the toppling of Sheikh Hasina's government after popular protests in Bangladesh in August.
Southeast Asia
Indonesia formally requested to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) this month, seeking to widen its export markets and attract investment. US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo also visited Indonesia to observe Exercise Super Garuda Shield 2024, reaffirming the strong defence ties between the two countries. Indonesia has advanced its defence modernisation by moving forward with plans to build two Scorpène Evolved submarines domestically in partnership with France, boosting its naval capabilities. This signals Jakarta's growing focus on both economic and military partnerships, potentially aligning more closely with US interests.
India and Singapore signed an agreement to cooperate on semiconductor development, aimed at enhancing supply chain resilience and strengthening collaboration between the two nations' semiconductor industries. The deal, signed during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Singapore, is part of India's broader push to grow its semiconductor market, expected to reach USD 63 billion by 2026.
Thailand officially legalised same-sex marriage this month, with couples able to legally wed starting in January 2025 when the law comes into effect. The bill grants full legal, financial, and medical rights to same-sex couples, making Thailand the third country in Asia to allow same-sex marriage, after Taiwan and Nepal.
East Asia
Japan will soon have a new prime minister with the election of former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba as Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president. Shigeru is seen as an LDP intellectual heavyweight and expert on national security policy. In the leadership campaign, he touted an Asian NATO, and advocates for a more assertive Japan that is less dependent on the US. Luckily, Japan analyst Tobias Harris wrote a deep dive during the campaign on Shigeru’s politics: The Idealist.
Japan-China relations took a turn for the worse this month after a 10-year-old Japanese boy was stabbed to death in Shenzhen, the second knife attack on Japanese children in recent months. The Chinese Internet is awash with anti-Japanese nationalism, which is politically encouraged despite stringent censorship. This comes at a time of strategic disequilibrium in bilateral relations, with China being particularly unhappy about Japan expanding export controls on semiconductor and quantum computing technologies, and its closer military cooperation with the US. For the first time, China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier sailed through the contiguous zone between Okinawa's Yonaguni and Iriomote islands, while Japan also sent a warship through the Taiwan Strait for the first time. And although China agreed to “gradually” lift its ban on Japanese seafood imports, the bilateral relationship shows few signs of improvement.
Taiwan remains deeply divided on national security issues, which was highlighted this month as opposition legislators led by the China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) signalled that they might pull funding for the multi-billion USD submarine program, former President Tsai Ing-wen’s landmark project, because they disagree with the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) pro-US, anti-China defence policy. Additionally, there has been intense political debate over how Taiwan’s legislature should respond to recent motions by the Australian and Dutch senates, which call for challenging Beijing’s claim that UN Resolution 2758 determined Taiwan’s sovereignty — an issue central to Taiwan’s national identity. Taiwan’s response could affect cross-strait relations and influence the level of support it receives from other democracies.
Pacific Islands
Despite fears of unrest, 24 September saw New Caledonia peacefully mark the 171st anniversary of French annexation. Security was bolstered by over 6,000 personnel, reflecting ongoing tensions as pro-independence groups continue to challenge French rule. New Caledonia has sent a bipartisan delegation to meet officials in Paris to discuss the territory’s future amid rising calls for self-determination.
The Cook Islands has declared its ambition to explore and capitalise on its seabed mineral wealth. Meanwhile, Nauru used its UN address to also press the case for sea-bed mining. While seabed mining promises an economic boost, it has sparked intense debate, with environmental groups warning of risks to fragile marine ecosystems. Vanuatu, Fiji, and Samoa are leading the charge to make "ecocide" an international crime. These efforts are part of a larger Pacific push to protect natural resources and hold polluters accountable.
Fiji has launched its first Foreign Policy White Paper, outlining a vision to address complex global challenges over the next decade, with a focus on promoting peace in the Indo-Pacific region. Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka emphasised the importance of prioritising the Pacific community amid rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China, reflecting the shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world.
Solomon Islands has approved a licence for Starlink in a move to improve connectivity across the country and bridge the digital divide in remote areas, enhancing governance and economic opportunities. Together, Solomon Island and Vanuatu have launched discussions on establishing an international shipping registry, seeking to leverage their maritime locations to develop their economies.
The Pacific Islands Forum was recently the victim of a cyberattack, reportedly orchestrated by Chinese state-backed hackers. This incident has heightened concerns about cybersecurity vulnerabilities in the region, particularly as Pacific nations become increasingly reliant on digital infrastructure for governance and trade.
AUKUS continues to progress with the US and Australia achieving a milestone in submarine maintenance under Pillar 1 of the agreement. New Zealand is expanding its role in space operations by recently joining the US-led satellite-and-debris monitoring Operation Olympic Defender, positioning Wellington as an increasingly important player in space defence and technology.
Australia has expanded its PacificAus TV initiative to include the Cook Islands and Niue, providing these audiences access to over 2,000 hours of Australian television content annually. This effort, part of the Indo-Pacific Broadcasting Strategy, aims to promote trusted news and diverse programming across the Pacific. In Kiribati, where foreign diplomats including those from Australia and New Zealand remain barred from entry President Taneti Maamau looks set for re-election.
Finally, Tuvalu is on track to create a full digital twin of the country, part of a broader strategy to preserve its sovereignty and cultural heritage in the face of rising sea levels. As the smallest and most vulnerable island nations explore innovative ways to adapt to climate change, digital strategies are emerging as critical tools for future resilience.
THE BEST OF 9DASHLINE
This month, we highlight some of 9DASHLINE's most thought-provoking articles that delve into key emerging geopolitical trends in the Indo-Pacific with substantial global ramifications.
The yen's fluctuation and its geopolitical ripple effects: A new normal in Indo-Pacific
Between March and August 2024, fluctuations in the yen underscored its sensitivity to interest rate changes and uncertainties about a potential US recession, signalling a ‘new normal’ with significant implications for the economic and geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific region.
Dr Seohee Park (Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Tohoku University) analyses the wider geopolitical implications of the yen’s depreciation in this insightful read.
NATO on a risky course
The participation of Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand — collectively known as the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) — in NATO summits since 2022 signifies an emerging alignment aimed at enhancing security in the face of challenges posed by China and North Korea.
While proponents argue that closer cooperation between the transatlantic alliance and Pacific partners will bolster deterrence, Uwe Hoering (Editor of China, Geopolitics, and the Global South) explains why the European commitment to the Indo-Pacific remains largely symbolic.
New Zealand Foreign Policy: From ‘independence’ To ‘realism’?
Aotearoa New Zealand’s foreign policy has long been shaped by its unique geographic and cultural context in the South Pacific, as well as its historical ties to the United States and economic relationships with China.
In this article, Dr Lucas Knotter (Lecturer, University of Bath) examines the complexities surrounding New Zealand's so-called ‘independent’ foreign policy, which often seeks to balance competing interests between American and Chinese influences.
The ‘Indo-Pacific Tilt’ — The New UK Government’s ASEAN-UK Dialogue Partnership Inheritance
The UK’s general election on July 4th saw the Labour Party succeed the Conservative Party after 14 years in power, raising questions about the future of the UK’s Indo-Pacific policy.
Here, Dr Shingo Nagata (Visiting Researcher, Kanazawa University) explores how the Labour government might adapt their inherited Indo-Pacific approach to maintain the UK’s influence in the region and strengthen relations with ASEAN amid evolving geopolitical dynamics.
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