THE NAVIGATOR
MARCH 2025
MARCH OF CHANGE: WHO’S SHAPING ASIA’S FUTURE?
By Dr. Manali Kumar, Editor-in-Chief at 9DASHLINE
March was marked by deepening geopolitical fractures and a growing sense of uncertainty, particularly in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. Trump and Vance’s dismissive treatment of Zelensky rattled Europe, amplifying fears of US disengagement and fuelling debates on EU self-reliance, including a potential nuclear deterrent. Meanwhile, China continued consolidating its strategic grip on global supply chains, while Musk’s DOGE-fuelled chaos further eroded trust in American institutions.
Across the Indo-Pacific, nations are navigating an increasingly multipolar world, balancing security concerns with economic pragmatism amid shifting alliances. Our two briefs this month explore the potential ripple effects of the Trump administration’s recent moves in two distinct areas. The first explores how India is balancing its oil imports amid geopolitical pressures, increasing US crude imports while remaining a key buyer of Russian oil despite Western sanctions. The second considers the defunding of Radio Free Asia (RFA), which will weaken US soft power in the Indo-Pacific, leaving an information void that could be filled by authoritarian state-controlled narratives, particularly from China.
Geopolitical tensions are rising across the Indo-Pacific, as India counters China’s influence, US-China competition is further pressuring regional alliances, and domestic instability grows in Nepal, South Korea, and Myanmar. Economic risks include India-US trade disputes, sanctions on Thailand, and aid cuts that are exacerbating humanitarian crises. Meanwhile, climate threats, such as rising sea levels and deep-sea mining, pose long-term environmental and security risks. Yet, there are also opportunities: regional security partnerships like AUKUS and Japan-South Korea-China talks could reshape alliances, while economic incentives in Singapore and infrastructure investments across the Pacific are creating new growth prospects.
Wherever we look — whether in trade, security, or diplomacy — the post-WWII order appears to be unravelling, driven in large part by the very power that once upheld it. Yet, from this disorder, a new order is taking shape. Join us as we track these transformations in real-time. In case you missed it, we recently launched the second season of our podcast in cooperation with the European Parliament in ASEAN.
The most recent episode explores whether Europe can help fill the strategic void Washington’s recent policies are creating in Southeast Asia. The Navigator will continue to bring you in-depth analysis of these critical trends — subscribe today to stay ahead of the curve.
INDIA’S GEOPOLITICAL OIL CHANGE
By Chetan Rana, Senior Editor at 9DASHLINE
US President Donald Trump’s climate cynicism and the “drill, baby, drill” slogan have taken shape in the form of yet another Executive Order. Trump declared a “National Energy emergency” to promote domestic production of fossil fuels even though the US has been the largest producer of crude oil since 2018. One of the first destinations for this increased supply will be India. During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s February 2025 visit to the US, it was agreed that US oil exports to India would increase from USD 15 billion to USD 25 billion. From Trump’s perspective, oil exports will reduce its existing trade deficit with New Delhi.
India is the third largest consumer of crude oil and imports nearly 85 per cent of its requirements. Hardeep Singh Puri, Union Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, has stated that India is diversifying its sources of import to protect against price fluctuation and supply constraints, and the US will be an important source. While greater collaboration and trade may signal generally strengthening Indo-US ties and a step towards fulfilling the target of doubling bilateral trade to USD 500 billion by 2030, Russian crude oil remains a key factor.
India is a key player in global energy politics as it has become the second-largest destination for Russian crude oil. Russian crude oil’s share in Indian imports has increased from one per cent before the Ukraine war to 38 per cent, and has become the largest supplier of Naphtha to India in 2024. Due to Western sanctions, Russia has been selling discounted oil to India and China. However, this has not made the petrol prices affordable for domestic consumers. Instead, India has become a stop-over refinery for Russian crude oil to be processed and exported to other parts of the world allowing Moscow to circumvent the sanctions. This crude oil revenue has been the backbone of the Russian economy since it invaded Ukraine.
Though the discount has been substantially reduced, in December 2024 the Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries and Russian Rosneft signed the largest Indo-Russian energy deal to date to refine 500,000 barrels of Russian crude oil daily. However, American crude oil has supplanted the fall in Russian supply after the new wave of sanctions targeting the ‘shadow tankers’.
The clock is ticking for India to rebalance its oil imports mix. Washington expects New Delhi to wean itself off Russian crude oil. But India-Russia ties have shown great endurance and have the weight of history (arms dependence) behind them. While Indo-US relations have strengthened in the last two decades, India will be reluctant to develop asymmetrical dependencies with just one power.
ASIA'S NEXT ‘MINI’ SHOULD BE LITERARY — NOT LATERAL
By David MacSweeney, Founder at 9DASHLINE
“When it comes to China-related reporting, VOA has an appalling track record” — this was the view of China's Global Times in a recent editorial in response to the Trump administration’s decision to slash funding to media outlets such as Voice of America and Radio Free Asia (RFA). The issue of access to information and media freedom is particularly acute in the Indo-Pacific, which is home to more than half the world's population. Fuelled by artificial intelligence and social media, strategic communication and the dissemination of information are reshaping geopolitics in ways that are far from understood.
Established in 1996, RFA provides independent, uncensored, and accurate local news to nearly 60 million weekly listeners — many of whom have limited access to a free press or are subjected to authoritarian disinformation. With an annual budget of just USD 60.8 million, RFA has been a pillar of democratic engagement in the Indo-Pacific at an astonishingly low cost. The defunding of RFA, however, exposes a fundamental weakness in the Trump administration’s approach to the world, where it seems intent on pursuing influence through power, rather than power through influence. The Republican Party's traditional libertarian ideology has been upended by Trump’s hostility toward a free, open press — where power can be scrutinised through access to reliable information. Recently, we witnessed the Trump administration deflect accusations of incompetence over its mishandling of sensitive information about US airstrikes in Yemen, choosing instead to question the credibility of the journalist who exposed the story and of The Atlantic magazine. For many in Asia, particularly in fragile democracies, this latest episode will reinforce lingering perceptions of Western hypocrisy and will likely serve to further embolden authoritarian regimes.
By prioritising cost-cutting over values and the importance of soft power, the decision to defund RFA weakens US credibility in a region where small but strategically vital nations — such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar — are routinely forced to navigate geopolitical issues and narratives through a mix of balancing and bandwagoning strategies with significant impact on Western partners. This move is likely to leave an information vacuum that will enable state-controlled anti-democratic narratives to set the agenda and dominate the discourse. In 2017, the region witnessed the horrifying consequences of the unchecked power of dis-and-misinformation. Fuelled by social media platforms like Facebook, the genocide of Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar cannot be forgotten.
As RFA staff work to keep their operation afloat, the key question is who will fill the space if they are forced to shut completely. China’s recent move to fund two significant initiatives in Cambodia — one focused on child literacy and the other on nutrition and development, both previously supported by USAID, until hobbled by DOGE — speaks to the speed and direction of travel. China remains laser-focused on shaping narratives that support its aim of further entrenching its position as the regional superpower.
RFA’s decline also presents a significant opportunity for the European Union, given its ambition to establish itself as a geopolitical actor. European state-owned, public service broadcasters such as Deutsche Welle, France24, the UK’s BBC World Service, and even Euronews are well-positioned to step into the void. By seizing this moment, Europe has an opportunity to shape the regional information landscape in ways that align with democratic values. Partnering with established entities like the Australian Broadcasting Corporation and Radio New Zealand could greatly amplify their collective influence, establishing a mini-literature or ‘minilit’ aligned to the overarching aims of the region's burgeoning minilateral groupings.
The question is not whether an alternative will emerge, but who will shape the future of information in the region. If Europe fails to act, others — less committed to the right to access accurate and reliable information and the principles of free and independent journalism — absolutely will.
ACROSS THE INDO-PACIFIC
South Asia
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Mauritius sought to reassert India’s commitment to the Global South and maritime security by unveiling the MAHASAGAR initiative, an extension of the earlier SAGAR initiative. The initiative seeks to ensure India’s centrality in the Indian Ocean region and check China’s growing influence. During the visit, India also backed Mauritius on the Chagos issue. On the other hand, Indo-US ties remain uncertain after the Trump administration threatened retaliatory tariffs targeting India’s largest exporters, moves that could have substantial effects on an already underperforming economy.
Balochistan remains in focus in Pakistan after the hijacking of the Jaffer Express by the Balochistan Liberation Army and the subsequent rescue operation. More than 50 passengers and soldiers were killed. The Pakistani army has blamed India for sponsoring and supporting the BLA. While relations with its Eastern neighbour remain tense, there are positive developments across its Western frontier with Afghanistan. Torkham border crossing has been reopened after a month-long closure due to the clashes between the security forces of Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Nepal’s less than 20-year-old republican project faces yet another political crisis after the pro-monarchy movement recently gained some steam. In 2008, Nepal became a multiparty republican democracy and abolished the 240-year-old Hindu monarchical kingdom. Royalist groups seek to iron out a new agreement (nayi samajhdari) to bring about a system comprising both the king and the political parties. PM Oli’s party, CPN-UML claims that these activities undermine the struggle of seven decades and Nepal’s democracy.
In a major security operation, Bangladesh has arrested Ataullah Abu Ammar Jununi, leader of the Rohingya insurgent group ARSA. The arrest comes amid worsening conditions in Rohingya refugee camps due to foreign aid cuts (especially the freezing of USAID), leading to food and medicine shortages.
Southeast Asia
In a dramatic series of events, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested and flown to The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity for his deadly war on drugs. The operation, secretly coordinated by Philippine authorities and triggered while Duterte was in Hong Kong, culminated in one of the most high-profile arrests in International Criminal Court history. Duterte’s arrest is likely to significantly impact domestic politics in the Philippines, given his long-standing clashes with President Bongbong Marcos and the deep divisions between their political camps.
Myanmar’s military leader Gen. Min Aung Hlaing visited Russia for talks with President Putin, seeking deeper cooperation and support amid international sanctions and isolation following his 2021 coup. Russia, a key arms supplier and political ally, continues to bolster Myanmar’s military regime through defence deals, joint military exercises, and nuclear energy agreements.
Thailand’s secret deportation of 40 Uyghur men to China — despite repeated public denials — has drawn sharp condemnation from human rights groups and led to US sanctions on Thai officials. Just days later, Thailand and China are set to launch their sixth joint naval exercise, Blue Strike-2025, near the South China Sea, highlighting their growing military cooperation. The timing of the drills signals Bangkok’s deepening strategic alignment with Beijing as it faces mounting backlash from Western allies.
Indonesia’s parliament has passed revisions to the military law allowing active-duty personnel to assume roles in a wider range of civilian institutions, sparking fears of democratic backsliding and a return to military dominance in governance. Critics warn the changes, championed by President Prabowo Subianto’s administration, threaten to erode reforms instituted after Suharto’s authoritarian rule and blur the line between civilian and military authority.
Singapore’s 2025 budget introduces a broad array of tax incentives aimed at boosting business growth, innovation, and international expansion, with measures such as corporate tax rebates, enhanced R&D deductions, and support for mergers, acquisitions, and public listings. These initiatives are designed to attract multinational investment and solidify Singapore’s position as a competitive, business-friendly hub in the Asia-Pacific region.
East Asia
In Taiwan, the government has revoked the residence permits of three “Zhongpei” or “Chinese spouses” — a term referring to individuals from mainland China who are married to Taiwanese citizens — for publicly advocating for the military unification of Taiwan. The case has struck a chord among the general public amid Beijing’s escalating pressure on the island. Elsewhere, President William Lai has announced the return of military courts to tackle the deepening Chinese infiltration of the armed forces, while formally designating China as a “hostile foreign force” and tightening restrictions on cross-strait exchanges. Meanwhile, a nationwide recall campaign targeting KMT legislators is gathering pace amid accusations that they are colluding with China to obstruct Taiwan’s democratic governance. Politics and geopolitics are heating up across the Taiwan Strait.
South Korea’s political landscape remains intensely volatile as the nation awaits a pivotal Constitutional Court’s ruling on whether to uphold or overturn the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol. In a significant development, it overturned the impeachment of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, reinstating the country’s acting leader. Meanwhile, the opposition Democratic Party filed a motion to impeach Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok, who stepped in as acting president during Han’s impeachment, further underscoring the heightened political tensions in the country. If Yoon’s impeachment is upheld — the court’s decision is expected imminently — an election must occur within 60 days.
Japan announced plans to deploy long-range missiles with a 1,000km range on its southern island of Kyushu to bolster its defences around the Okinawa island chain amid rising regional tensions and growing concerns over the stability of the US-Japan security alliance. Earlier in the month, President Trump labelled the alliance nonreciprocal, while NBC reported that the Pentagon is mulling halting a planned expansion of US Forces Japan as part of a sweeping cost-cutting drive, reporting which Japan has attempted to pour cold water on.
The foreign ministers of South Korea, Japan, and China convened in Tokyo for their first trilateral talks since 2019, showing a growing interest in stabilising intra-Asian relations. Japan and South Korea are cautiously exploring independent diplomatic engagement with China amid growing global uncertainty and US unreliability. Japan’s foreign minister said of the meeting: "Given the increasingly severe international situation, I believe we may truly be at a turning point in history".
In Hong Kong, BlackRock’s acquisition of CK Hutchison’s Panama port assets — owned by 96-year-old Li Ka-shing, once a trusted figure in Beijing’s reform era — has triggered scathing attacks from official media. The backlash shows the rising pressure on Hong Kong firms to align with Beijing’s national and economic security priorities and shrinking room for manoeuvre for a territory that has long prided itself on being a city of free-flowing capital and neutrality in global business.
Pacific Islands
Papua New Guinea (PNG) has blocked Facebook, affecting 1.3 million users, citing the need to curb misinformation and harmful content. Opposition leaders of the move have argued the ban amounts to ‘tyranny’. Nauru has launched a passport sale program, offering citizenship for USD 105,000 to fund the relocation of its population due to rising sea levels, thus far financial constraints have hindered efforts.
Vanuatu’s new PM, Jotham Napat, has signalled his aim to ‘revisit’ the 2022 security agreement with Australia, calling for explicit recognition of climate change as a security issue and better travel arrangements for Vanuatu citizens.
In the Solomon Islands, China has emphasised “high-quality development” focusing on infrastructure investments and deeper bilateral cooperation, continuing its growing influence in the region. Activists are pushing for Chuuk’s independence from the Federated States of Micronesia, citing dissatisfaction with governance and economic disparities — a referendum has been repeatedly delayed. Meanwhile, Tokelau is considering holding a third referendum on independence, revisiting past efforts that failed to gain sufficient support.
Fiji and China marked 50 years of diplomatic ties, with China's Ambassador highlighting their expanding cooperation in trade, infrastructure, and climate change, and a plan to extend their bilateral partnership into space exploration.
The US and Palau are advancing military upgrades to the Malakal Wharf, enhancing strategic infrastructure under their Compact of Free Association agreement. A US think tank has warned that China is using transnational criminal organisations, including the Prince Group, to advance its political influence in Palau, potentially undermining Taiwan's diplomatic ties with the island nation. India is closely monitoring Palau’s diplomatic positioning amid growing Chinese influence in the region, seeing it as a potential ally in the Pacific.
China has accused the Director-General of New Zealand's Security Intelligence Service of lying after he warned about the security risks posed by Beijing's increasing influence in the Pacific and spreading "false information". Wellington dismissed its High Commissioner to the UK, Phil Goff, after he questioned President Trump’s understanding of history, highlighting fears about the potential consequence of offending the current US administration.
Australia will provide a loan guarantee of more than AUD 2 billion over the next decade to major banks in the Pacific, helping sustain their operations and reduce reliance on China. The United States deployed the USS Minnesota to Western Australia under the AUKUS partnership, with four more Virginia-class submarines expected by 2027. A Chinese naval group, including an advanced Type 055 destroyer, was detected near Australia amid the US submarine drills. In Perth, an AUD 8 billion upgrade to the HMAS Stirling naval base is underway to support future US naval operations.
France’s Southern Cross military exercise is set to take place in Wallis and Futuna in April, involving forces from Fiji, Tonga, PNG, Australia, and New Zealand, focusing on regional security and disaster preparedness. French and Pacific forces have expanded military collaboration, integrating regional partners into joint training exercises to strengthen defence cooperation.
Kiribati is exploring deep-sea mining collaborations with China despite environmental concerns over seabed resource exploitation. The move has drawn concern from environmental groups and neighbouring countries. And finally, Tonga is currently drafting a new strategic development plan aimed at economic resilience, climate adaptation, and infrastructure improvements.
THE BEST OF 9DASHLINE
In case you missed them, 9DASHLINE’s articles this month explored key geopolitical and economic shifts shaping the Indo-Pacific. From China’s dominance in maritime infrastructure and Trump’s climate rollback to Indonesia’s BRICS ambitions and Australia’s evolving trade policies, here are some of our most insightful reads that highlight the region’s complex balancing act between economic growth, security, and strategic alignment.
INVESTMENT AND TECHNOLOGY ARE DRIVING CHINA’S MARITIME INFRASTRUCTURE DOMINANCE
As the US grapples with rising security risks in its critical infrastructure, Hannah Hains (Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Foundation) sheds light on the growing vulnerabilities posed by China’s control over global maritime logistics. The discovery of unauthorised modems in Chinese-manufactured cranes at US ports underscores the risks of reliance on Beijing-backed firms, which dominate global shipbuilding, shipping, and port development.
Hains details how China’s state-supported enterprises have secured a commanding position in global supply chains, raising concerns over potential espionage and coercive economic leverage.
TRUMP’S CLIMATE ABANDONMENT WILL ERODE US STANDING, PARTICULARLY IN THE INDO-PACIFIC
With Trump dismantling US climate commitments, the Indo-Pacific faces heightened uncertainty. James Bowen (Director, ReMap Research) critiques the administration’s reversal on green energy, arguing that it weakens US influence while China capitalises on clean technology opportunities. Trump’s fossil fuel push — marked by withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and attacks on the Inflation Reduction Act — contradicts economic realities, as many regional players now see decarbonisation as a strategic advantage.
Bowen warns that US backsliding not only disrupts energy markets but also isolates Washington from allies embracing a low-carbon future, further widening the leadership gap between the US and China.
INDONESIA IN BRICS: NEW CHAPTER OR FAMILIAR STORY?
As Indonesia joins BRICS as its first Southeast Asian member, newly inaugurated President Prabowo Subianto is seeking to position the country as a leader of the Global South while maintaining its long-standing strategy of multi-alignment.
Dominique Fraser (Asia Society Policy Institute) and Dr. Premesha Saha (Observer Research Foundation) examine Indonesia’s motivations, highlighting its ambition to leverage BRICS membership for economic growth, infrastructure financing, and strategic diplomacy. However, they caution that Indonesia’s inclusion in a grouping heavily dominated by China may pose more challenges than opportunities. With its commitments to ASEAN, OECD aspirations, and Western partnerships, Jakarta now faces the difficult task of balancing its role within BRICS while avoiding entanglement in great power rivalries.
HAS AUSTRALIA TURNED ITS BACK ON FREE TRADE?
Australia’s Future Made in Australia Act marks a shift toward state-led investment in clean energy, critical minerals, and domestic manufacturing. While traditionally a free trade champion, Australia is now aligning with global industrial policies to reduce reliance on China and secure its role in the net-zero economy.
Melissa Conley Tyler (AP4D) and Viet Dung Trinh (University of Queensland) argue this reflects a broader trend where economic policy and national security are increasingly linked. Despite this shift, Australia still values open markets as a defence against economic coercion, as seen in its successful trade diversification after tensions with China. With rising global protectionism, Canberra is balancing strategic autonomy with economic openness.
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