THE NAVIGATOR
APRIL 2024
TILTING TOWARDS CHINA?
By Dr Manali Kumar, Editor-in-Chief at 9DASHLINE
Welcome to the April edition of The Navigator – 9DASHLINE’s flagship newsletter which reviews important developments across the Indo-Pacific. This month, we dive into the region’s complex geopolitical landscape characterised by competition between major powers, strategic alignments, and efforts to assert influence in key sub-regions.
Our two lead stories this month focus on South Korea and Southeast Asia. The liberal opposition party's landslide victory in South Korea's legislative election reflects a rather bleak mid-term evaluation of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration and signals a possible shift in the country’s foreign and security policies. A recently released survey of elites in Southeast Asia shows that the US' standing in the region has declined, with a majority of elites preferring China over the US, particularly in Indonesia, despite concerns about China's actions in the South China Sea. Together, these trends may indicate a broader scepticism of American engagement in the Indo-Pacific, raising questions about future regional attitudes and US policy implications.
Next up, the Region Review section provides a concise analysis of key developments across the Indo-Pacific, offering a comprehensive overview of the region's most significant events. The Indo-Pacific is a vital economic hub, and ongoing political dynamics hold global significance. China is continuing to deepen its influence in Southeast Asia and the Pacific through economic and diplomatic initiatives. How nations navigate economic challenges and address the geopolitical rivalry between China and the US will shape risks and opportunities throughout the region. In case you missed them, we also link to some of the most insightful expert analyses published on 9DASHLINE towards the end.
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A NEW DIRECTION IN SEOUL’S FOREIGN POLICY?
By Wooyun Jo
South Korea’s recent legislative election is expected to have far-reaching implications for the country's foreign and defence policies. The liberal opposition party won the election with 175 seats (58.3 per cent), whereas President Yoon Suk-Yeol's conservative party secured only 108 seats (36 per cent). The results indicate a potential shift in the country's foreign policy stance, and observers are closely watching for the specific initiatives and measures that the new national assembly will undertake to implement its envisioned changes.
Since the liberal opposition party has secured a significant majority in the legislature, it is expected that South Korea will prioritise diplomacy and engagement with its neighbouring countries, particularly North Korea. This approach could mark a possible departure from the Yoon administration's efforts to strengthen the trilateral alliance with the US and Japan. In this sense, the liberal party’s victory could result in President Yoon's stance on critical geopolitical issues being re-evaluated, and a renewed focus on building cooperative ties within the region will likely emerge. Accordingly, the Yoon government’s key defence policies, such as participating in international security efforts along with Japan, may also be revised substantially, as these have been criticised by the liberal party. This election marks a pivotal moment that presents both challenges and opportunities for South Korea as it navigates its diplomatic relations and national security priorities in the coming years.
SHIFTING ATTITUDES IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
By Connor Fiddler
In February 2022, the Biden Administration released its “Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States”. The white paper emphasised that the new administration would prioritise strengthening the US’ relationships with regional partners. The strategy document specifically states, “We see Southeast Asia as central to the regional architecture”. Two years later, however, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s recently released annual State of Southeast Asia Survey suggests that the United States' standing in the region has declined.
One of the key takeaways of the survey, which polls elites in Southeast Asian countries, is that a majority of respondents said they would pick China over the US if they had to choose. Most concerning for Washington are elite attitudes in Indonesia — a critical leader in Southeast Asia and an important partner for the US. Despite having claims against China in the South China Sea, the highest-ranking issue among Indonesian elites was the Israel-Gaza conflict at 74 per cent. Additionally, 73 per cent said they would pick China over the US. Respondents' number one concern about the US was fear of American economic and military power.
While Indonesia’s results primarily reflect its large Muslim population, as a regional power it could be a bellwether country for future Southeast Asian attitudes. It is unclear to what extent these elite attitudes will influence the policy of the new Indonesian president or any other Southeast Asian government. What is clear is that Southeast Asia continues to be sceptical of American engagement in the region. It should concern policymakers in Washington that many Southeast Asian elites would prefer closer ties with China over the US.
ACROSS THE INDO-PACIFIC
South Asia
Indian elections have officially commenced. Unlike most countries, Indian voters are given 44 days to make their voices heard. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is pursuing a third term and most polls indicate that his Bharatiya Janata Party will win the needed majority.
In the Maldives, the People’s National Congress (PNC) has won 66 of the 93 legislative seats. Observers anticipate that the PNC will shift its policies farther from India and closer to China. Strategically located in the Indian Ocean, the trajectory of the Maldives will be critical.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan held a call with his Sri Lankan counterpart. During the conversation, Sullivan expressed support for Sri Lankan safety and prosperity. Sullivan also supported Sri Lankan cooperation with the International Monetary Fund.
Extreme storms have hit Afghanistan and Pakistan killing at least 135 people and destroying 2,600 houses and 95,000 acres of farmland. Concerns remain that extreme weather will continue, causing more devastation.
Southeast Asia
April saw a lot of Chinese engagement with Southeast Asia. After hosting Indonesian President-Elect Prabowo Subianto in March, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited the nation on 18 April. He used the trip to talk about growing Chinese investment in Indonesia as well as plan for a joint military exercise between the two countries.
Earlier in the month, Beijing hosted foreign ministers from Vietnam, Laos, and East Timor. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson stated that China hopes to achieve “more practical results” in its relationships with Southeast Asian nations.
China has made several advancements with Vietnam this month. China and Vietnam agreed to establish a naval hotline to mitigate tensions in the South China Sea. While China has established hotlines in the past, Beijing has rarely used them. Additionally, Vietnam announced that it hopes to complete a high-speed rail from Hanoi to China by 2030. The planned high-speed rail would pass through major Vietnamese ports and manufacturing cities.
Meanwhile, fighting has continued in Myanmar with dozens of civilians arrested and killed by the Junta forces in the northern Sagaing region, which has shown strong resistance to military rule. The Karen National Union temporarily withdrew its troops from Myawaddy, a town along the Thai border, after the junta launched a counteroffensive to reclaim the key trading post they had lost earlier, which serves as a significant conduit for annual foreign trade exceeding USD 1 billion.
East Asia
China-Taiwan relations look to have improved this month as former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-Jeou met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on 10 April. Analysts have said the meeting will help to soften calls to unify with Taiwan by force, conveying to domestic audiences that there are still pro-China forces in Taiwan, and peaceful unification is on track. The meeting suggests that in the wake of the election of independence-leaning William Lai, Beijing will seek to invite more pro-China politicians to undermine the elected government, in line with the emphasis on "uniting patriotic forces” which emerged from the Taiwan Affairs Work Conference earlier this year. All eyes will be on China’s response to Lai’s inauguration speech on 20 May, but analysts say Xi now has a “face-saving exit” to temper his response.
Japan and the US boosted their security ties this month which US President Joe Biden called the “most significant” updating of the alliance since its inception. A factsheet released by the White House lists over 60 initiatives. Taken together, these initiatives elevate the bilateral partnership into one which envisions Japan playing a more substantial role in the region. The trilateral summit with Kishida, Biden, and Ferdinand Marcos Jr on 11 April shows that US allies are betting big on the US staying power in the region.
The Pacific
Australia’s recent announcement that it will invest AUD 32 billion in missiles, drones, and warships underscores Canberra’s growing concern about China’s assertive actions in the Pacific. Despite significant domestic opposition, exploratory talks about the potential inclusion of New Zealand in Pillar II of the AUKUS security pack (artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and hypersonic missiles) signifies deepening security cooperation amongst China's rivals. Wellington’s decision to deploy a P-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft on its furthest-ever mission (enforcing UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea) highlights its willingness to play a more active role across the Indo-Pacific.
Meanwhile, China continues to expand its influence across the Pacific Islands. The possible return to office of pro-Beijing PM Manasseh Sogavare resulting from the 17 April elections in the Solomon Islands remains a concern for Honiara’s democratic neighbours. Chinese Special Envoy for Pacific Island Countries Affairs Qian Bo’s recent visit to the Solomon Islands resulted in a 'sister-province relationship' and deepening economic and cultural ties. However, the re-election of vocal China critic Daniel Suidani in Malaita, Solomon Islands’ most populous province, may signal domestic resistance to Chinese ambitions, highlighting the complex political dynamics playing out across small Pacific nations. This internal opposition contrasts with reports of a recent visit by a Chinese delegation to Tonga ahead of August’s Pacific Islands Forum as part of Beijing’s Pacific ‘policing push’ which highlights its continued efforts at expanding its influence.
The withdrawal of Western banks from Nauru will likely create a financial vacuum that China is well-positioned to fill. Nauru's recent MoU with the Bank of China strongly points to a shift toward reliance on Chinese financial institutions. Following Nauru’s recent diplomatic switch from Taiwan to China this is likely to enhance Beijing’s leverage over Yaren’s affairs.
However, other nations are stepping up to counterbalance China’s Pacific presence. Taiwan, the US, Japan, and Australia, are supporting an undersea cable project for Tuvalu, providing access to faster and more reliable internet. Managed by Google, it will ultimately run from Guam to French Polynesia and connect 14 Pacific countries.
THE BEST OF 9DASHLINE
This month, we spotlight some of 9DASHLINE’s most thought-provoking articles that explore recent developments and take a forward-looking view.
Japan is the US’ most important ally in the Indo-Pacific, and the convergence of ideas, approaches, and capabilities during the Biden-Kishida administrations has been unparalleled. It is no surprise then that Tokyo is worried about the upcoming election in the US.
Charting the future: US elections and the evolving US-Japan alliance
In this insightful read, Dr Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp (Director, Agora Strategy Institute) explores how Japan is preparing for the possibility of another Trump administration in Washington, DC.
The dynamic between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan is among the most volatile relationships in the Indo-Pacific.
Don't expect any breakthroughs in India-Pakistan relations
In this article, Syed Ali Zia Jaffery (Deputy Director, Center for Security, Strategy and Policy Research) reviews how the bilateral relationship has evolved under ten years of the BJP-led government in New Delhi, and explores how it may evolve given the new government in Islamabad.
With many Pacific Island nations caught in the geopolitical rivalry between China and the US, we see these smaller nations leveraging their newfound strategic significance to their advantage.
A purported pact: China’s quest for security foothold in Papua New Guinea
Here, Thierry Lepani (Political Journalist) analyses Papua New Guinea’s efforts to maintain a “friends to all, enemies to none” foreign policy as it continues to grapple with a challenging internal security situation.
A similar dynamic is unfolding in South Asia, where China has steadily encroached on India’s regional influence.
China-Maldives military agreement: an upgrade to the bilateral relationship
Here, Lea Thome (Schwarzman Fellow, Wilson Center) explains how the Maldives is navigating the tug-of-war between the rising powers even as it appears to tilt towards China, at least for now.
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