THE NAVIGATOR
MAY 2025
ASIA’S GIANTS ARE REWRITING THE RULES
By Dr. Manali Kumar, Editor-in-Chief at 9DASHLINE
May saw a sharp escalation in geopolitical intensity in the Indo-Pacific, beginning with the alarming India-Pakistan crisis that briefly captured global attention and raised serious concerns about nuclear escalation. This period of heightened tension gave way to a flurry of diplomatic engagements across the region by month's end, as highlighted by French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit to Indonesia, the 46th ASEAN Summit, China's outreach to Pacific Island countries, and high-level US efforts to reinforce regional partnerships and stability. These contrasting developments underscore the Indo-Pacific's complex and rapidly evolving strategic landscape.
In this context, our two briefs this month explore how Asia’s two largest powers are recalibrating their external strategies to serve domestic political ends. Just as China has evolved under Xi Jinping into a regime of maximum maritime pressure — using grey zone tactics to deflect internal instability — India under Narendra Modi is leveraging the Indus Water Treaty as a tool of coercive diplomacy, linking water-sharing to counterterrorism and national security. In both cases, regional balances are being reshaped by leaderships willing to instrumentalise external disputes to consolidate power at home.
States across the Indo-Pacific must balance domestic pressures with external challenges in an increasingly multipolar environment. In South Asia, Sri Lanka is strengthening economic ties with regional partners, while Bangladesh and Nepal grapple with democratic uncertainty and domestic unrest. Across East Asia, governments are facing growing political pressure — South Korea is heading into a snap election, Japan is managing cabinet fallout, and Taiwan is confronting legislative gridlock and rising cross-strait threats. Meanwhile, although China is intensifying its push for regional influence through economic and cultural diplomacy, it is also running into resistance, especially in Europe. In the Pacific, as smaller states assert their interests, they are navigating complex trade-offs around sovereignty, security, and sustainability in a rapidly shifting regional order.
Alliances continue to be tested in the Indo-Pacific’s crowded and shifting geopolitical landscape. In case you missed it, this month’s episode of our podcast, in cooperation with the European Parliament in ASEAN, unpacks the significance of Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Southeast Asia and Beijing’s evolving regional strategy.
As the established order continues to churn and transform, The Navigator remains committed to providing you with in-depth analysis on these transformative trends — subscribe today to stay informed.
BEIJING’S WAR DRUMS ECHO INTERNAL WEAKNESS
By Benjamin Blandin, PhD Candidate, Paris Catholic University
Since Xi Jinping came to power, China has shifted from targeting individual neighbours to applying sustained pressure across its entire maritime periphery. Whereas earlier provocations typically focused on one actor at a time — Vietnam in the 1970s through 2015, then the Philippines after the 2016 arbitral ruling — Beijing is now simultaneously escalating tensions in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and Yellow Sea. Despite blaming neighbours and “malicious foreign forces”, this assertive and increasingly coordinated strategy appears driven more by domestic imperatives than external threats.
Domestically, disillusionment is deepening as economic stagnation and poor crisis management erode public trust and weaken growth prospects. Within the military, Xi’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign — targeting many high-ranking officials, including some of his own appointees — has fostered excessive caution and slowed modernisation efforts. In this context, China’s confrontational posture towards its neighbours appears increasingly tied to internal fragility. The CCP and CMC leadership seem to be using external tensions, amplified through propaganda, to deflect public frustration and manufacture unity around opposition perceived foreign threats.
As economic gains become increasingly harder to deliver and domestic discontent simmers, China’s leadership appears to be running short on scapegoats. In this climate, political survival may take precedence over stability, with the risk that Beijing manufactures a major external crisis — potentially over Taiwan or the South China Sea — to rally support and preserve the Party’s authority. Its expanding arsenal of asymmetric capabilities, from grey zone tactics to hybrid warfare and anti-access strategies targeting Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, suggests a leadership preparing precisely for such a scenario.
GEOPOLITICS OF SHARED RIVERS
By Dr. Manali Kumar, Editor-in-Chief at 9DASHLINE
India’s recent decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in “abeyance” marks a major rupture in South Asia’s most resilient bilateral accord. While not a formal withdrawal, India’s unilateral move — prompted by the deadly Pahalgam terror attack — has escalated tensions with Pakistan and injected new volatility into an already fragile hydropolitical relationship. The suspension disrupts long-standing protocols, including pre-notified dam operations, and raises urgent concerns over downstream water security in Pakistan.
Geopolitically, India is leveraging the treaty to signal a tougher posture against Pakistan, framing the IWT’s cooperative spirit as incompatible with continued cross-border militancy. Simultaneously, India is pushing for a renegotiation, citing changes in population demographics, growing clean energy needs, and the impact of climate change, and had previously issued a formal notice to Pakistan in 2024, seeking to amend the treaty. Pakistan, critically dependent on the Indus for irrigation and power, views this as coercive diplomacy and a potential existential threat. Its readiness to engage in dialogue is tempered by fears of being pressured into a less favourable deal.
The IWT’s suspension revives long-standing disputes over India’s hydropower projects and exposes structural flaws in the treaty’s legal framework and dispute resolution mechanisms. In its current form, the treaty allows Pakistan and India unrestricted use of the Western (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) and Eastern (Satluj, Beas, Ravi) rivers, respectively. The absence of provisions for water quality, joint flood management, or climate resilience makes the IWT ill-equipped to handle 21st-century challenges.
Environmental pressures compound the crisis. The Indus basin is facing glacial retreat, erratic flows, and a looming “peak water” scenario. The treaty’s allocation model — crafted for a predictable hydrological regime — cannot accommodate today’s climate-induced volatility. Meanwhile, the overlooked upstream role of China, which controls the Indus headwaters, introduces a destabilising third actor into an already fraught equation.
The current impasse is not merely a legal or political dispute — it is a climate-security emergency unfolding across one of the world’s most water-stressed regions.
ACROSS THE INDO-PACIFIC
South Asia
May saw the conflict between India and Pakistan at the centre of South Asian geopolitics. New Delhi responded to the Pahalgam terror attack in Indian Kashmir with ‘Operation Sindoor’ on 7 May, striking alleged terror camps in both Pakistan-occupied Kashmir as well as Pakistan (proper). This marked a significant escalation, with both neighbours engaging in drone warfare and missile strikes, leading to civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. President Trump claimed to have brokered a ceasefire on 10 May (India continues to deny any US involvement), but tensions remain high. India has deployed all-party delegations to draw public attention to terrorism. Since the ceasefire, Pakistan has ramped up its arms imports, notably from China and Turkey. Islamabad was also able to secure an extension of its IMF facility in the middle of the conflict, which will likely prove critical for the revival of its economy.
The future of democracy is far from certain in Bangladesh, where the Yunus-led interim government has banned former PM Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League. Meanwhile, the interim government is also facing criticism from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (largest opposition party) for proposing elections in June 2026. The BNP, along with other political parties and the army, is pushing for elections at the earliest opportunity and preferably before the end of this year.
Domestic political upheaval continues in Nepal with opposition parties demanding Home Minister Lekhak’s resignation before a new budget is presented. Nepal’s Congress has defended the minister and rejected allegations of his involvement in the ‘visit visa scam’ (a human trafficking racket) as unverified rumours. And while the ruling coalition has denied any internal rifts, it faces a challenging period amid ongoing pro-monarchy protests.
Sri Lanka hosted New Zealand's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Winston Peters, for an official five-day visit—the first since 2013. Peters met with President Dissanayake and Foreign Minister Herath to discuss enhancing cooperation in trade, agriculture, education, tourism, and security. Peters also announced several initiatives including short-term training programs for Sri Lankan officials and the launch of a Sustainable Water and Livelihoods project. Aiding and assisting the Sri Lankan dairy industry was an important facet of the bilateral talks, as the country imports 60 per cent of its dairy needs. Furthermore, Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao will be leading a delegation of 115 members to the Sri Lanka-China Trade and Investment Forum on 30 May. Finally, India and the US continue to monitor China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean which remains a significant area of concern.
Southeast Asia
French President Emmanuel Macron visited Vietnam to deepen defence and trade ties amid rising global instability and US-EU trade tensions. He emphasised a rules-based order, signed more than a dozen agreements — including aircraft sales with VietJet — and pledged support in nuclear energy, renewables, and critical minerals. Meanwhile, Vietnamese Party Chief Tô Lâm concluded a four-nation tour to Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Belarus, strengthening traditional ties and upgrading partnerships. His trip yielded over 60 cooperation agreements across defence, energy, trade, and education, reinforcing Vietnam’s foreign policy of independence and development. Both visits highlight Vietnam’s central diplomatic role amid shifting global power dynamics and strategic uncertainty.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Jakarta to expand trade and investment ties amid US-led global trade tensions. Emphasising China’s growth despite rising protectionism, Li called for unity and dialogue among Global South nations. He brought a delegation of 60 business leaders and highlighted major Belt and Road initiatives. The leaders signed over a dozen agreements in finance, energy, agriculture, and health. Additionally, Australian Prime Minister Antony Albanese visited Indonesia to strengthen economic and defense ties with President Prabowo Subianto. The leaders discussed trade, energy, and security amid global tariff tensions. These two visits reflect the complex cooperation between Indonesia’s close neighbours in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) won a resounding victory in the 2025 general election, securing 87 of 97 seats and increasing its vote share to 65.6 per cent. The result is a major boost for Prime Minister Lawrence Wong amid global economic instability. Despite expectations of opposition gains, the Workers’ Party maintained only 10 seats. Voters favoured PAP’s message of stability amid US trade wars. However, concerns over rising living costs and inequality persist, especially among younger Singaporeans seeking more balanced political representation.
East Asia
In North Korea, Kim Jong Un faced a significant military setback with the failed launch of a warship belonging to the same class as the country's first destroyer, which had been launched in April to much fanfare. The failure raises serious questions about the North’s technical competence and naval modernisation efforts, as well as the extent of foreign assistance involved. Analysts suggest the vessel was likely constructed with support from Russia.
In South Korea, voters will head to the polls on 3 June for a snap presidential election following the ousting of Yoon Suk Yeol. Lee Jae-myung of the opposition Democratic Party has a significant lead over his main rival Kim Moon-soo of Yoon’s conservative People Power Party. If successful, Lee indicates he will restore communication channels with Pyongyang, and aims to rebalance relations with China while elevating South Korea-US relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Both candidates support constitutional reforms, including a two-term, four-year presidency, to address systemic issues highlighted by the recent political turmoil.
In Taiwan, more than 25 of the KMT’s 52 lawmakers face upcoming recall elections driven by civil groups angered by what they see as the KMT-controlled legislature’s excessive deference to China. While not all or even many will be successful, analysts say the KMT’s narrow legislative majority in the 113-seat legislature — relying on an alliance with the smaller TPP to pass legislation — is at risk, with the potential to reshape Taiwanese politics. Restoring a DPP majority will make efforts to bolster societal resilience and deepen military reforms far more achievable.
A senior Taiwanese official told the Financial Times that China’s military is now capable of shifting 'from peacetime to war operations at any time,' echoing Admiral Samuel Paparo’s February warning. Taiwan’s Defence Minister Wellington Koo told the Liberty Times that its forces aim for 'high combat readiness by 2027,' reflecting fears of a potential Chinese invasion timeline.
In China, signs are emerging that Beijing is seeking to fill the vacuum left by the US’ retreat from regional influence. Tencent Music has invested in a K-pop firm, suggesting Beijing plans to lift its unofficial ban on K-pop in the wake of the THAAD dispute. However, this flexibility is less evident in its relations with Europe. The South China Morning Post recently highlighted the “limits” to any thaw in China-Europe relations as Beijing is unlikely to yield on two core issues for Europe: support for Russia in its war against Ukraine and industrial overcapacity. There are also clear limits to how far Beijing is willing to compromise on what it considers core interests, particularly territorial claims. In late May, it declared three "no-sail zones" in disputed areas of the Yellow Sea, also claimed by South Korea, apparently for military exercises, triggering an interagency meeting in Seoul.
In Japan, Agriculture Minister Taku Eto resigned following controversial remarks about not needing to pay for rice, adding pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's administration ahead of the July upper house elections. Meanwhile, lawmakers have approved a USD 6.3 billion spending package to support businesses amid Trump’s tariffs. The move underscores the government’s precarious position ahead of the elections. Japan hopes an agreement with the US on trade can be reached on the sidelines of the G7 summit meeting in Canada next month.
The Pacific
The Cook Islands is seeking clarification after its maritime registry was removed from the global Registry Information Sharing Compact (RISC) due to concerns relating to international sanctions and alleged links to Russia’s shadow fleet. Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown will visit Australia to lead a science-based dialogue with diaspora communities on the potential exploration of seabed minerals.
Samoa’s parliament is set to be dissolved on 3 June after the government failed to pass a budget, triggering new elections (date unspecified), setting up a period of political uncertainty. China has denied allegations that it pressured Solomon Islands’ Rural Development Minister, Daniel Waneoroa, to resign from the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC). His resignation comes amid ongoing debate over the Solomon Islands' relationship with China. Australia has committed USD 3 million to support climate-resilient farming in Tonga, while simultaneously dismissing environmental concerns from Pacific island neighbours to approve a 40-year extension of a contentious gas project, highlighting its dual focus on climate and resource development.
In Fiji, Beijing is increasing efforts to promote Fijian products in China, deepening trade ties as part of broader economic engagement. Meanwhile, a Lowy report indicates that Pacific nations are grappling with a “tidal wave” of debt repayments to China, raising concerns about financial sustainability and sovereignty. Indonesia is pushing for Papua New Guinea’s ASEAN membership, though significant political and economic obstacles remain.
This week, China hosted a summit with Pacific Island nations aimed at bolstering diplomatic and trade ties, offering development support, and emphasising mutual respect. Taiwan’s three Pacific allies — Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands, and Palau — did not attend. In June, President Emmanuel Macron will host talks in Paris to address the future of New Caledonia, aiming to ease tensions following major unrest last year. The move comes as France continues to face political instability and uncertainty in the territory, fuelled by long-standing calls for independence.
Residents of the Northern Mariana Islands are facing the impact of a significant US military build-up, including upgrades to airfields and new training facilities. Locals remain concerned about environmental damage, rising living costs, and unfulfilled promises of infrastructure improvements such as schools and hospitals. Meanwhile, China is reviving the Woleai airfield in Micronesia, a move that raises US strategic concerns as Washington seeks to reinforce its Compacts of Free Association with Pacific island states.
Guam’s governor recently visited Taiwan to strengthen bilateral relations, as Guam increasingly plays a key role in US and allied military and cyber cooperation. This included the participation of the Guam National Guard in the Balikatan 2025 military exercise. New Zealand’s Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has warned that the Pacific must be protected from becoming a militarised zone amid China’s growing influence. He also cautioned Pacific nations against over reliance on Chinese investment, calling for a more balanced approach to external partnerships. His remarks came ahead of a meeting with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong.
China is contesting Australia’s plans to reclaim the Darwin Port, citing US influence, as regional infrastructure and strategic assets remain focal points of great power competition. Baron Waqa, Pacific Islands Forum secretary-general, indicated the US remains the region’s preferred partner but is calling for greater Washington involvement on key issues like climate change.
Finally, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year in a visit aimed at "promoting a more mature, stable and productive” relationship.
THE BEST OF 9DASHLINE
In case you missed them, this month’s standout 9DASHLINE articles examine how power, principle, and grievance are shaping the Indo-Pacific’s future.
From Japan’s subtle yet strategic balancing act in Cambodia and rising authoritarianism under Hun Manet, to mounting strains in the US-South Korea alliance and escalating tariff battles between Washington and Beijing, our featured reads unpack the shifting alliances and contested values redefining the region.
Dive into these timely perspectives to better understand what’s at stake in today’s Indo-Pacific.
NAVIGATING THE MIDDLE: JAPAN-CAMBODIA RELATIONS AND THE CHALLENGE OF GEOPOLITICAL COMPETITION
Despite growing Chinese influence, Cambodia remains a contested space in the US-China rivalry — with Japan emerging as a quietly persistent counterweight.
In this insightful read, Dr. Sophal Ear (Associate Professor, Arizona State University) examines how Tokyo’s long-term development assistance, defence diplomacy, and soft power outreach offer Phnom Penh alternatives to China’s dominance. Ear argues that Japan’s challenge is to deepen engagement without triggering pushback, while Cambodia must build internal resilience and avoid becoming a passive satellite.
For both, the relationship is a test of whether liberal internationalism can hold ground in mainland Southeast Asia.
IN BRIEF: MU SOCHUA, PRESIDENT OF THE KHMER MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRACY
Despite Cambodia’s deepening authoritarianism, Mu Sochua — Nobel Peace Prize nominee and exiled opposition leader — warns of increasing repression under Hun Manet and China’s growing influence. She describes the transition of power as dynastic theatre, with judicial and legislative institutions captured by one ruling family, and highlights the regime’s cross-border crackdown on dissidents.
Urging stronger international responses, including sanctions and conditional trade, she calls on the EU and US to use economic leverage to push for reforms, and underscores the role of young people, social media, and the diaspora in reviving Cambodia’s democracy and civil society.
THE ROUGH ROAD AHEAD FOR US-SOUTH KOREA RELATIONS
Despite deepening strategic ties, the US-ROK alliance faces major challenges. With President Trump’s erratic second-term trade policies undermining allies’ trust and disrupting global markets, Hunter Slingbaum (Research Assistant, Stimson Center) explores the challenges a politically unstable Seoul faces in managing internal divisions and diplomacy with Washington.
Trump’s transactional approach and threats to withdraw troops unless South Korea pays USD 10 billion have revived public and elite support for nuclearisation, fuelling fears of a fractured alliance. Still, partial US retrenchment could boost South Korea’s strategic autonomy while reducing tensions with North Korea.
Slingbaum suggests both countries should explore defence-industrial cooperation and economic complementarity, even as Seoul considers hedging through other partnerships.
US-CHINA TRADE TARIFFS: THE CLASH OF NATIONAL GRIEVANCES
Following Trump’s 2 April “Liberation Day” speech, which framed US trade policy as a struggle to reclaim national dignity, tensions with China escalated dramatically. Trump imposed punitive tariffs of up to 125 per cent on Chinese goods, prompting swift retaliation from Beijing.
While the tariffs are largely symbolic, Dr Anisa Heritage (Senior Lecturer, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst) analyses both sides’ weaponisation of national grievance and use of ‘respect’ to justify hardline stances. Trump’s rhetoric ties economic assertiveness to a sense of humiliation and lost status, demanding deference from adversaries. Beijing, in turn, frames US actions as efforts to contain China, demanding respect before engaging in talks.
Despite signs of possible de-escalation, both sides insist the other act first, entrenching the conflict. Heritage warns this dynamic threatens broader regional stability, with fears rising that trade tensions could spill into the security realm — particularly over Taiwan, where Trump’s ambiguous signals may embolden Beijing.
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