THE NAVIGATOR
JUNE 2024
RISING HEAT, RISING STAKES: INDO-PACIFIC TENSIONS ESCALATE
By Dr Manali Kumar, Editor-in-Chief
Welcome to the June edition of The Navigator – 9DASHLINE’s flagship newsletter which keeps you up-to-date with important developments across the Indo-Pacific. This month, we delve into the region’s escalating geopolitical tensions, marked by climate challenges, strategic debates, and power plays that are reshaping the security and economic landscape.
Our two issue briefs this month focus on India and South Korea. India is battling unprecedented heatwaves that are not only breaking historical records but also exposing significant vulnerabilities within its workforce and infrastructure. These extreme weather events underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies. Meanwhile, South Korea is at the forefront of a high-stakes nuclear debate. With North Korea's provocations intensifying, public opinion is increasingly in favour of developing a nuclear arsenal, challenging traditional security paradigms and international diplomatic efforts.
Next up, the Region Review section provides a crisp review of key developments across the Indo-Pacific, offering a comprehensive rundown of the region's most significant events. The Indo-Pacific remains a critical economic and strategic hub, and the ongoing geopolitical dynamics hold global significance. China is toughening its stance on Taiwan and expanding its legal framework to assert control, while simultaneously bolstering its influence in Southeast Asia through economic agreements and strategic posturing. As countries navigate these complex issues, their responses will shape the risks and opportunities throughout the region.
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EXTENDED HEATWAVES EXPOSE VULNERABILITIES IN INDIA
By Chetan Rana
As India's election season cools down, the country is grappling with an unrelenting heatwave which is shattering previous records. During the recent general elections, several cities experienced temperatures which soared above 45°C, impacting voter turnout and the health of election staff. Since March, this heatwave — which is expected to persist into July — highlights the increasing frequency, intensity, and duration of such extreme weather events across the subcontinent.
Traditionally, heatwaves in India lasted a mere 3-4 days per season. The scenario has drastically shifted primarily due to climate change, with forecasts predicting over 20 consecutive days of scorching heat in several regions. Insufficient weather stations and inadequate remote sensing capabilities limit the accuracy of temperature data, resulting in a lack of localised climate data. The official death toll due to the heat stands at 143 as of June 20, though alternative estimates suggest the numbers could be triple that figure.
This phenomenon poses a significant threat to over 90 per cent of the Indian workforce engaged in the informal sector. These workers are especially vulnerable to heat-related health hazards, compounded by a lack of robust social security measures. The escalation in heatwaves and ensuing heat stress is anticipated to drastically reduce productivity, pushing low-income workers, such as construction labourers and roadside vendors, towards poverty due to diminished working hours and escalating health expenses.
Immediate and sustained action is imperative as climate change-induced phenomena become a lived reality for the masses. This includes conducting better-localised impact assessments and devising tailored solutions that address the unique needs of affected communities. Without significant intervention, the human and economic toll of these heatwaves is set to rise.
NUCLEAR DEBATE HEATS UP IN SOUTH KOREA
By Connor Fiddler
With North Korea's provocations escalating, South Korea is on the brink of reconsidering its nuclear options, igniting a high-stakes debate on the peninsula's security future. According to a 2024 survey by the Asan Institute, 71 per cent of South Koreans support developing their own nuclear arsenal, reflecting frustration with North Korea's continuous missile tests and aggressive posturing. This shift in public opinion comes as North Korea has increased its missile tests, conducted nuclear operations drills, and adopted a policy allowing preemptive nuclear strikes against South Korea. However, a CSIS opinion poll of over 1,000 strategic elites shows that 66 per cent oppose or are uncertain about nuclearisation, citing concerns over international condemnation, reputational costs, and sanctions. Only 34 per cent support it, much lower than public opinion. These actions have intensified the debate within South Korea about pursuing a nuclear deterrent, especially as doubts grow about the reliability of the US’ extended nuclear deterrent.
To address South Koreans' concerns, the US and South Korea announced the 2023 Washington Declaration. This declaration established the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), which facilitates high-level discussions on nuclear strategy and bolstering extended deterrence against North Korean threats. Key measures include South Korea's reaffirmation to remain within the nuclear non-proliferation regime, the US’ commitment to consult with Seoul before any nuclear use on the Korean Peninsula, and the increased visibility of US strategic assets in the region. The agreement also emphasises deepening joint military exercises and integrating South Korean military capabilities into US strategic planning. By reinforcing the US nuclear umbrella and ensuring robust defence cooperation, the Washington Declaration aims to mitigate South Korea's nuclear ambitions and enhance regional stability.
ACROSS THE INDO-PACIFIC
South Asia
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent visit to China aimed to secure substantial energy and infrastructure deals amidst the country’s economic turmoil but yielded limited success. Meetings with President Xi Jinping and top Chinese officials resulted in only vague commitments to advance the Main Line 1 (ML-1) Railway project and a portion of the Karakoram Highway. Analysts suggest China’s reluctance stems from Pakistan’s financial instability and security concerns following attacks on Chinese workers.
The World Bank projects India will remain the world's fastest-growing large economy in 2024 with a growth rate of 6.6 per cent, down from 8.2 per cent in 2023. Strong domestic demand and infrastructure investment drive this growth, positioning South Asia as the fastest-growing region globally. Global economic growth is expected to stabilise at 2.6 per cent, but risks like geopolitical tensions and US protectionist policies could impact this outlook.
Monsoon rains and river water from India have caused severe flooding in northeastern Bangladesh, affecting over 2 million people, including 772,000 children. Further heavy rain is forecasted, exacerbating the crisis. UNICEF highlights the urgent need for assistance, with many at risk of drowning, malnutrition, and diseases. The flooding has disrupted essential services, submerged farmland, and damaged infrastructure, including schools and clinics, compounding the impact of a recent cyclone.
Southeast Asia
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a dozen agreements with Vietnamese President To Lam during his visit to Hanoi, focusing on cooperation in education, science, technology, oil and gas exploration, and clean energy. In contrast, US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Kritenbrink visited Vietnam shortly after, emphasising the robust economic relationship between the US and Vietnam, with bilateral trade reaching USD 111 billion in 2023 compared to Vietnam's USD 3.6 billion trade with Russia. Kritenbrink also addressed China's assertive actions in the South China Sea and reinforced the US’ commitment to regional security.
At the 39th ASEAN-Japan Forum, officials reaffirmed their commitment to advancing the ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, focusing on mutual trust, respect, and benefit. They reviewed progress since the 50th Anniversary Commemorative Summit and agreed to enhance cooperation in economic, societal, and peace initiatives, including the Asia Zero Emission Community and the ASEAN-Japan Co-Creation Initiative.
Thailand's Senate has overwhelmingly approved a bill legalising same-sex marriage, making it the first Southeast Asian country to do so. The legislation, which grants full legal rights to marriage partners of any gender, now awaits the King’s endorsement.
In the South China Sea, the Philippines accused China of using "aggressive and illegal force" to disrupt a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal, resulting in a serious injury to a sailor. China disputes these claims, asserting that its coast guard acted lawfully and professionally.
East Asia
In China, the Supreme People’s Court and other government agencies released new legal guidelines for criminalising “‘Taiwan independence’ diehard separatists”. While mostly symbolic — the PRC has never had jurisdiction over Taiwan — Chang Wu-yueh, a Taiwanese expert on cross-Strait relations characterised this as another attempt to “declare internationally their claimed jurisdiction over Taiwan”. Beijing is building out its legal architecture for administering the island. The new legal guidelines resemble Hong Kong’s National Security Law offering more evidence that the “one country, two systems” framework first put forward by Deng Xiaoping offering Taiwan a “high degree of autonomy” is rapidly receding under Xi Jinping. China’s stance on Taiwan is hardening.
In Taiwan, reform legislation expanding the legislature’s power — which President Lai Ching-te signed into law on 24 June — continues to be the source of serious political contestations and protests. Lai said he would seek a ruling on their constitutionality from the Constitutional Court. Academia Sinica Research Fellow Nathan Batto argues that since the reforms partly aim to embed the KMT’s power into the system over the long term, the power struggle between the executive branch and legislative branch “is going to dominate politics over the next four years”.
If the KMT succeeds in enhancing its power against the DPP, and KMT reformers within the party fail to control the pro-China faction which seeks détente with China, debates over Taiwan’s defence budgets could become much more contested, which would worry Washington.
The Hong Kong Court's decision on 30 May to convict 14 democracy advocates on charges of “conspiracy to commit subversion” for organising unofficial primaries to select candidates for Legislative Council elections prompted Jonathan Sumption and Lawrence Collins, former justices of the British Supreme Court and overseas judges at the territory’s Court of Final Appeal, to resign from their Hong Kong posts. Explaining his decision, Sumption said: “Hong Kong, once a vibrant and politically diverse community, is slowly becoming a totalitarian state”. The court's decision and the judges’ resignations raise profound questions about Hong Kong’s future as a rule-of-law territory and its tenability as a global city.
The Pacific
New Caledonia is experiencing further unrest following the transfer of a pro-independence Kanak leader to a prison facility in mainland France. With French security forces deployed to quell the violence, Kanak leaders argue unrest remains a symptom of long-standing grievances related to a possible dilution of the overall electorate as a means for Paris to stymie any future vote for independence.
Meanwhile, Australia and New Zealand are bolstering regional connectivity with a new undersea cable to Tonga, ensuring crucial internet access. The Solomon Islands and Vanuatu have deepened ties by signing the Tirvau Agreement, which focuses on trade, investment, and security. However, Secretary General of the Pacific Islands Forum, Baron Waqa, cautioned against geopolitical manoeuvring in the region, emphasising the Forum's focus on climate change, human security, and countering transnational crime.
Fiji and Papua New Guinea are leading diplomatic efforts with a draft UN resolution urging peaceful dialogue in New Caledonia. Australia announced new initiatives for bolstering Papua New Guinea's internal security through a range of training and community programs. Meanwhile, New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon Indicated that Wellington is resetting its foreign policy to focus more on Indo-Pacific security, signalling a shift in strategic priorities.
Amid these developments, the US has concluded joint military exercises with Palau, which was recently targeted in a major cyberattack attributed to China. Following recent elections in the Solomon Islands, Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele is visiting Australia amidst concerns over growing Chinese influence in the region. In neighbouring Papua New Guinea, which recently suffered from devastating landslides, the US has utilised the Quad framework to provide much-needed disaster relief.
New Zealand is set to reverse its ban on oil and gas exploration to attract investment into the country's energy sector. Amid increasingly complex relations between Canberra and Beijing, Australia has reached a USD 50 billion gas deal with Timor-Leste. This agreement could result in Dili receiving approximately 90 per cent of the project's revenue, thereby securing its energy needs and keeping China at bay.
THE BEST OF 9DASHLINE
This month, we spotlight some of 9DASHLINE’s most insightful articles that explore important trends and developments in India as well as the Solomon Islands.
All change in Solomon Islands? Elections, a new prime minister, what comes next?
Although less attention-grabbing than some other elections this year, the Solomon Islands’ April elections held after a year-long delay, have installed a new prime minister. Here, Dr Tess Newton Cain (Pacific Islands region analyst) explains the political negotiations that resulted in the new coalition government and explores the future trajectory of domestic and foreign policy.
A humbled Modi returns to power — What lies ahead
What does India’s unexpected general election result mean for Indian politics? In this piece, 9DASHLINE’s Dr Manali Kumar and Chetan Rana review some of the key successes and failures of Narendra Modi’s leadership over the past 10 years and explore the political future of the new coalition government in New Delhi.
India’s inevitable military diversification to the West
India’s traditional dependence on the Soviet Union and then Russia for acquiring defence equipment has been in the spotlight since Russia’s recent war in Ukraine. In this article, Patrizia Cogo Morales (Founder, India Watch Briefing) explains New Delhi’s strategic calculus and analyses recent trends in India’s efforts to diversify its military partnerships towards the West.
Striking a balance in India’s evolving AI odyssey
The emergence and growth of generative AI is one of the most transformative developments in recent years. As India’s AI market rapidly grows, the country needs forward-looking regulations to minimise risks of misuse. Here, Fatima Tahir (public policy practitioner) examines India’s evolving AI policy landscape identifying key priorities and crucial gaps.
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