THE NAVIGATOR
NOVEMBER 2024
ELECTIONS, ENVIRONMENT, AND ENGAGEMENTS ACROSS THE INDO-PACIFIC
By Dr Manali Kumar, Editor-in-Chief at 9DASHLINE
Welcome to the November edition of The Navigator — 9DASHLINE’s flagship newsletter, bringing you essential updates from across the Indo-Pacific.
November has been marked by developments that underscore both challenges and frustrations on the global and regional stage. The re-election of Donald Trump as US President signals turbulent times ahead for international relations, with potential ripple effects across diplomacy, trade, security, and global governance. Meanwhile, northern India and parts of Pakistan grapple with extreme pollution levels, a recurring crisis that reflects the persistent failure of policymakers to craft sustainable solutions. Adding to the sense of dismay is the outcome of COP29, which once again highlighted the limitations of hosting climate talks in fossil fuel-dependent nations and the pervasive influence of the fossil fuel industry on these critical discussions. Global governance must urgently adopt more participatory and inclusive processes that give the Global South a meaningful voice in shaping decisions if we are to achieve lasting global stability.
Our two briefs this month focus on the pollution crisis in India and the evolving landscape of connected vehicles. Delhi’s notorious air quality, often exceeding WHO limits tenfold during winter, is emblematic of a broader regional failure to address this public health emergency. We also explore the increasingly important issue of connected vehicles and include a link to our recent report.
Developments across the Indo-Pacific in November reflect a tapestry of political shifts, strategic alignments, and socio-economic challenges. South Asia witnessed significant electoral outcomes, with Sri Lanka’s National People's Power alliance securing a mandate for reform, while Pakistan's judicial overhaul stoked domestic and international tensions. In Southeast Asia, Myanmar’s growing ties with China highlight Beijing’s strategic recalibration, while Indonesia balanced diplomacy between the US and China. East Asia is grappling with the implications of Donald Trump’s re-election, affecting Taiwan’s security strategy and South Korea’s alliance dynamics. Meanwhile, the Pacific region saw intensifying US-China competition, growing calls for urgent climate action, and continued efforts by Taiwan to counter diplomatic isolation. These developments underline the region’s ongoing challenges and its centrality to global geopolitics.
In the latest episode of our podcast THE BRIDGE, produced in collaboration with the European Parliament in ASEAN, Hunter Marston joins Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy and Richard Heydarian to discuss how Donald Trump’s return to the White House could influence relations in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
As always, stay tuned to The Navigator for expert analysis and in-depth coverage to keep you ahead in understanding the region's dynamic developments.
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INDIA’S HEALTH AND ECONOMY, CHOKING ON NEGLECT
By Chetan Rana, Associate Editor at 9DASHLINE
Air pollution has become an acute crisis in South Asia, with New Delhi, often cited as the world's most polluted city. Delhi's air pollution levels frequently exceed the World Health Organization's (WHO) safe limits tenfold during winter months. While Delhi often makes the headlines, poor air quality in India and generally across Asia is a growing public health hazard. Earlier in November, Lahore was covered under a thick layer of smog. Although Delhi's geography is a key factor in the recurrent smog, the annual inability to address the issue as well as the growing number of cities with poorer air quality is clearly a policy failure.
The primary pollutants — particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), nitrogen oxides, and sulphur dioxide — are linked to respiratory diseases, cardiovascular ailments, and even cognitive decline. Research indicates a strong correlation between air pollution and daily mortality. Children, the elderly, and individuals with pre-existing conditions are particularly vulnerable. The pollution also asymmetrically affects the poor and workers — who must spend long hours in the open. It is also leading to a decline in life expectancy, with 1.67 million deaths in India in 2019 attributed to air pollution.
Breathable air, an increasingly rare commodity, is also a prerequisite for a booming economy. According to a report by Dalberg, bad air in Delhi reduces productivity by ten per cent and the cost of pollution to Indian businesses is nearly USD 95 billion or three per cent of the GDP. This has triggered a trend of companies moving out of the National Capital Region to destinations in southern India. The poor air quality is also disincentivising consumers as well as tourists.
In the case of India, winter air pollution brings along the blame game amongst different states for the sources of emissions. Similarly, the governments at the state and union levels along with the judiciary find themselves in a tussle to mitigate the immediate symptoms. Policy adhocism has steered the governance so far, however, Delhi and other economic hubs need long-term and holistic planning to reduce air pollution.
CONNECTED FUTURE: THE PROMISE AND PROBLEM OF CONNECTED VEHICLES
By David MacSweeney, Founder 9DASHLINE
The arrival of connected vehicles (CVs) means a new era in transportation, promising enhanced safety, efficiency, and convenience. As vehicles become increasingly interconnected, they are transforming not only the motor industry but also the geopolitical landscape. The potential benefits of connected vehicles are significant. By sharing real-time data with other vehicles and infrastructure, these vehicles can optimise traffic flow, reduce accidents, and improve overall road safety. Moreover, they can facilitate the integration of electric and autonomous vehicles, contributing to a more sustainable future.
However, the rise of CVs is further intensifying an already complex geopolitical landscape. Global powers are vying for dominance in this emerging technology, recognising its strategic importance. The United States is considering restrictions on the use of Chinese and Russian components in connected vehicles, citing potential national security concerns. This move underscores the growing geopolitical rivalry between major powers and the potential for this technology to become yet another tool of strategic competition.
Unsurprisingly, China is seeking to lead the connected vehicle industry. Beijing is making significant investments in research, manufacturing, and infrastructure to position itself as a global powerhouse, with far-reaching impacts on supply chains, data security, and the global economy. The European Union is also working to shape the future of connected vehicles through its regulatory framework and investment in research and development. The EU aims to balance innovation with consumer protection and data privacy, ensuring the sustainable and ethical development of this technology.
As the global race for tech dominance intensifies, the geopolitical implications of connected vehicles are becoming increasingly clear. Governments are navigating issues such as data sovereignty, cybersecurity, and niche supply chains. The ability to control and leverage connected vehicle technology could have significant geopolitical ramifications, shaping the balance of power and influencing global relations.
Only through international cooperation and the development of strong regulatory frameworks can we ensure that people everywhere can experience the benefits of connected vehicles while effectively managing the associated risks.
For a more in-depth analysis on the issue of connected vehicles, download a free copy of our recent joint report with the Boym Institute.
ACROSS THE INDO-PACIFIC
South Asia
Sri Lankans have continued to reject the traditionally dominant parties with President Dissanayake-led National People's Power (NPP) alliance securing a decisive victory in the parliamentary elections. The leftist alliance has promised to uproot the corrupt political culture and dilute the president's executive powers.
In Pakistan, the government is facing growing pressure over the incarceration and prosecution of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, both domestically and internationally. Simultaneously, the Sharif government has been pushing through legislation for judicial reforms and extending the tenures of the heads of the armed forces. The legislature will now enjoy greater say in the appointment of the judges including the country’s Chief Justice.
An Indian delegation met the Taliban government's Ministers as well as former President Karzai. The discussions with the Taliban included a humanitarian package for Afghans and the offer to enhance commerce through the Chahbahar port in Iran. This is in line with New Delhi's attempt to normalise relations with a Taliban-led Afghanistan.
The first trilateral power transaction has been inaugurated in South Asia. This project enables the flow of energy from Nepal to Bangladesh through the Indian grid. The Deputy Commander of INDOPACOM Lt Gen Rudd also visited Kathmandu and Dhaka and met with senior military officials. As Nepalese Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli prepares for his first official visit to China, the role of smaller South Asian states may become even more crucial as Donald Trump returns to the Presidency and the Sino-US contestation heats up.
Southeast Asia
On 6 November 2024, Myanmar's military leader Min Aung Hlaing visited China, signalling a shift in Beijing's stance, which had previously played a delicate balancing act between Myanmar's junta and ethnic armed groups. China's growing support for the junta, including backing its planned 2025 elections, marks a shift away from its earlier neutrality. Beijing's involvement is driven by economic interests and fear of instability, as it seeks to protect its investments and maintain control over Myanmar, despite the growing strength of the pro-democracy resistance.
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's inaugural overseas trip in November 2024 underscored his commitment to a balanced foreign policy. He visited both China and the United States, reflecting Indonesia's non-aligned stance amid escalating global tensions. In Beijing, Prabowo met with President Xi Jinping, emphasizing collaboration over confrontation and securing agreements worth USD 10 billion in sectors like green energy and technology. Subsequently, he met with President Biden in Washington, discussing regional security and economic cooperation. This diplomatic approach highlights Indonesia's strategic balancing act between major powers, aiming to safeguard its sovereignty and promote regional stability.
The US has delivered five T-6C trainer aircraft to Vietnam, the largest arms transfer to the country since the Vietnam War. This deal strengthens Vietnam's defence capabilities amid its territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Vietnam, traditionally reliant on Russia for arms, is diversifying its defence partnerships, with further US aircraft deliveries planned. The move reflects growing cooperation between the US and Vietnam, with potential future purchases of US military equipment as part of Vietnam's air force modernisation.
East Asia
In Taiwan, Donald Trump’s election victory and its potential implications have sparked significant debate, particularly in light of his comments alleging that Taiwan has taken US semiconductor business and should pay for protection. Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung positioned Taiwan as being able to help Trump “Make America Great Again” with its tech sector. Opposition parties argue the government must ensure Taiwan’s US arms purchases count towards the US-Taiwan trade balance, highlighting the party’s “American scepticism”. While the Financial Times has reported that Taiwan contacted US officials to procure USD 15 billion in military hardware, it remains to be seen whether Taipei’s wishlist conforms with the US’ expectation that it pursues an asymmetric strategy. For a fascinating Taiwan-centric discussion on the implications of Trump’s victory for Taiwan, check out this interesting interview with John Bolton (in English) on Fan Chi-fei’s YouTube or Podcast.
In South Korea, Trump’s victory has heightened jitters about the dependability of the US’ extended nuclear deterrent and the future of the Special Measures Agreement. Like Taiwan’s use of “MAGA”, President Yoon Suk Yeol congratulated Trump on his "landslide victory" with the "Make America Great Again" slogan. Yoon has reportedly taken up golf after learning that Donald Trump and Shinzo Abe had bonded over the sport.
In Hong Kong, 45 democrats, including Benny Tai and Joshua Wong, were jailed for their roles in organising unofficial primaries in 2020 for an upcoming Legislative Council election. It is a move which imprisons a generation of civil society leaders. Notably, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer twice declined to condemn the jailing, and Foreign Minister David Lammy did not release a statement on the sentencing. In October, the Foreign Office requested that Tsai Ing-wen "defer" her trip to the UK, signalling that the Starmer government is prepared to expend significant political capital to deepen ties with Beijing.
The Pacific
As Samoa’s Prime Minister visits China in a further sign of growing ties between the countries, the US deepened its Pacific presence by deploying a Virginia-class submarine to Guam. Meanwhile, a top US admiral warned the United States risks falling behind on building submarines needed to meet its AUKUS target. Additionally, the US signed a new defence pact with Fiji, reinforcing security ties in the region. These moves are aligned with broader efforts to maintain influence in the face of China’s increasing engagement with Pacific island nations.
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te will shortly visit the Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu to strengthen ties, as China continues its efforts to diplomatically isolate Taipei by luring Pacific nations to switch recognition. In the face of Beijing’s pressure, Taiwan seeks to solidify its relationships, particularly through shared democratic values and climate cooperation.
Pacific climate advocates have condemned the outcome of COP29, criticising the global community for insufficient action on climate financing and emissions cuts. Leaders from Tuvalu, Kiribati, and other low-lying islands expressed disappointment, as rising sea levels and extreme weather events threaten their existence. The region is demanding more urgent global action to address the climate crisis.
Tonga’s political landscape is tense as opposition parties push for a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Hu'akavameiliku, accusing the government of poor governance ahead of elections. In Papua New Guinea, Prime Minister James Marape is pushing for reforms to public service, the provincial and local level government system, and the law and justice sector. The Cook Islands has introduced a controversial water tariff, sparking backlash due to its impact on vulnerable communities. Meanwhile, Vanuatu faces criticism from the European Union after its citizenship-by-investment program led to the revocation of its visa-free access to the Schengen zone, raising concerns over security and regulatory oversight. In Palau, President Surangel Whipps Jr. secured re-election in a landslide victory, bolstering his mandate to focus on economic stability and regional ties, particularly with the US and Taiwan. Lastly, Bougainville continues to seek US support for greater autonomy and potential independence.
THE BEST OF 9DASHLINE
This month, we spotlight 9DASHLINE's most insightful articles, exploring emerging geopolitical trends in the Indo-Pacific and their far-reaching global implications.
In Forum: Donald Trump re-elected, the Indo-Pacific reacts
In the wake of Donald Trump's re-election, we convened a special Forum to explore its implications for key US partners across the Indo-Pacific, delving into the potential shifts in alliances, trade, and regional security.
Dr Matthew Sussex (Associate Professor (Adjunct), Griffith University), Dr Kei Koga (Associate Professor, Nanyang Technological University), Yuki Tatsumi (Senior Fellow, The Stimson Centre), Dr Andrea Chloe Wong (Non-resident Fellow, The Institute Of Indo-Pacific Affairs), and Kate Clayton (Senior Coordinator, La Trobe Asia) weigh in.
In Conversation with Dr. Enze Han
In a recent conversation with 9DASHLINE’s Southeast Asia Associate Hunter Marston, Dr. Enze Han discusses his latest book, The Ripple Effect: China’s Complex Presence in Southeast Asia.
The book offers a nuanced examination of China’s influence in the region, highlighting not only state-level relations but also the crucial role of non-state actors — such as businesses and migrants — in shaping perceptions of China across Southeast Asia.
Towards explicit criteria for de-risking? What the new European Commission has in store vis-à-vis China
Dr Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova (Riga Stradins University and Latvian Institute of International Affairs) explores the European Union's evolving approach to China under Ursula von der Leyen's leadership, shifting from a partner-competitor-rival stance towards a more assertive "de-risking" strategy.
As the EU faces increasing pressure from the US and internal divisions among member states, she argues that von der Leyen's second term will likely see a more streamlined, cohesive EU strategy towards China, though challenges remain in balancing economic interests with geopolitical realities.
Vietnam’s semiconductor push amid the Sino-US technological rivalry
Tran Thi Mong Tuyen (PhD Scholar, National Chengchi University) analyses Vietnam's strategic position in the global semiconductor industry amidst the intensifying US-China technological rivalry. As both nations safeguard semiconductor supply chains through initiatives like the US CHIPS Act and China’s "Made in China 2025", Vietnam faces both challenges and opportunities to strengthen its semiconductor sector.
She argues that with a bold, focused strategy, Vietnam can leverage its competitive advantages, attract foreign investment, and develop a skilled workforce, positioning itself as a key player in the global semiconductor market by 2030.
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The Navigator is produced by:
Connor Fiddler, Daniel McIntyre, Chetan Rana, Dr Manali Kumar and David MacSweeney
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