JULY 2025
DEFENCE, DIPLOMACY & DRONES: EUROPE AND ASIA NAVIGATE INDO-PACIFIC CHALLENGES
By Dr. Manali Kumar
Editor-in-Chief at 9DASHLINE
July showcased the Indo-Pacific’s growing focus on defence integration and regional security coordination. As part of IPE25, over 30,000 personnel from 19 nations, including Germany, Indonesia, and the US, conducted all-domain drills across Australia. Canberra and Jakarta deepened cooperation on maritime security and logistics, while the US Air Force launched REFORPAC — its largest-ever contingency response exercise in the region — to test airpower resilience in contested environments. Meanwhile, Australia and the UK signed the landmark Geelong Treaty, laying the foundation for decades of nuclear submarine cooperation under AUKUS. The 10th Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Washington reaffirmed strategic convergence on maritime security, critical technologies, and regional resilience.
This month’s brief turns to Taiwan, where a sweeping drone procurement drive marks a decisive pivot in defence strategy. Drawing lessons from Ukraine, Taipei is ordering nearly 49,000 domestically assembled drones over two years — a 14-fold increase. But this isn’t just about hardware. It’s a bold bet on national self-reliance, signalling Taiwan’s intent to build a sovereign defence ecosystem and redefine asymmetric deterrence amid persistent tensions with Beijing.
Across the Indo-Pacific, regional dynamics are growing more complex. In South Asia, India’s parliamentary session was marked by political tension and security debates, while the Maldives signalled a thaw in ties with New Delhi. Pakistan faced deadly monsoon floods and social unrest, even as economic reforms drew praise abroad. Southeast Asia saw Indonesia and Vietnam deepen trade ties with the US, while Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a fragile ceasefire. The Philippines reinforced defence partnerships amid storms and domestic political strains. In East Asia, Japan’s ruling coalition lost its upper house majority, South Korea hinted at a more pragmatic Indo-Pacific approach, and Taiwan’s ruling party suffered a recall setback. Meanwhile, China ramped up global engagement — hosting summits and clashing with the EU and the US on trade. In the Pacific Islands, deepening defence ties were tempered by ongoing concerns over sovereignty, environmental risks, and external influence.
With geopolitical tensions intensifying, Europe’s evolving role in the Indo-Pacific is under growing scrutiny — a dynamic tackled in several articles published on 9DASHLINE this month, as well as our podcast.
In case you missed it, the latest episode of The Bridge in conjunction with the European Parliament in ASEAN features James Crabtree on how turmoil in the Middle East is prompting Asian powers to recalibrate their views of Europe — and what this means for regional strategy.
As the Indo-Pacific continues to shift, 9DASHLINE delivers the sharp, timely analysis you need to keep up.
Don’t miss a beat — subscribe now and stay ahead of the curve.
TAIWAN’S DRONE SURGE SENDS A MESSAGE TO THE WORLD
By Cathy Fang
Policy Analyst, Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology
Taiwan is no longer dabbling in drone warfare — it’s going all in. In a landmark announcement last week, the Ministry of National Defense revealed plans to procure 48,750 domestically produced drones over the next two years. To put that in perspective: in 2023, Taiwan ordered just 3,400 units. This represents a 14-fold increase, marking the most significant expansion of Taiwan’s unmanned aerial capabilities to date — not a typo, but a clear shift in strategic posture.
Why now? The answer lies thousands of kilometres away — in Ukraine. The war there has underscored the decisive role drones play in modern conflict, not just as surveillance tools, but as force multipliers in asymmetric warfare. Taiwanese leaders are taking notes and taking action.
But this isn’t a sudden pivot. The foundation was laid months earlier. In May, Premier Cho Jung-tai announced a three-year plan to procure 47,000 drones. By June, Defense Minister Wellington Koo confirmed that unmanned systems would anchor Taiwan’s next special defence budget, alongside efforts to strengthen overall resilience. The writing was on the wall. Now, it’s policy.
What makes this procurement remarkable isn’t just its scale — it’s the strategic intent behind it. The government isn’t merely buying drones; it’s fuelling an industrial transformation. The tender requires that all systems be built and assembled domestically, bans Chinese components, and favours the use of homegrown parts. It’s a clear bet on national self-reliance, signalling to local manufacturers that now is the time to invest, expand, and lead.
As a recent Research Institute for Democracy, Society, and Emerging Technology (DSET) report points out, Taiwan’s drone sector has long had the capacity — it just lacked guaranteed demand. This procurement changes the equation. With large, predictable orders, companies can confidently grow their production lines, knowing revenue streams are secure.
Of course, challenges remain. While most components can be sourced locally, two critical ones — permanent magnets for motors and battery cathode materials — still come from China. Export restrictions imposed by Beijing have already delayed magnet shipments, posing a real threat to supply chain timelines.
Even so, Taiwan’s message is unmistakable: it’s building not just a drone fleet, but a sovereign defence ecosystem. This procurement is a down payment on deterrence — and a signal that Taiwan intends to fight the next war with the tools of tomorrow.
ACROSS THE INDO-PACIFIC
South Asia
India’s monsoon session of Parliament was marked by significant developments. Vice President Dhankhar resigned, officially citing health reasons, though tensions with the BJP leadership are widely believed to have contributed to his decision. The session witnessed intense debates on Operation Sindoor and national security, while the opposition protested the voter list revision exercise in Bihar, alleging the exclusion of specific communities ahead of the upcoming elections. Home Minister Amit Shah also announced the elimination of the Pahalgam terrorists in a recent military operation. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Modi travelled to the United Kingdom, where his visit concluded with the signing of the UK–India Free Trade Agreement.
President Muizzu hosted Prime Minister Modi as the Guest of Honour for the Maldives' 60th Independence Day celebrations, marking a significant departure from his earlier ‘India Out’ position. Several India-funded projects were inaugurated during the visit, including the Ministry of Defence building, social housing units, and road infrastructure. India also extended a new line of credit to the Maldives, suggesting a gradual repair in bilateral ties.
Heavy monsoon rains in Pakistan have claimed over 180 lives since late June, primarily in Punjab province. Flooding and collapsing poorly built homes have been the main causes of fatalities. Simultaneously, the nation was shaken by a high-profile honour killing, where an 18-year-old girl was allegedly tortured and murdered by her family on the orders of a local council. Such cases have surged from 226 in 2023 to 405 in 2024. On the economic front, the Sharif government’s decision to privatise key sectors, including Pakistan International Airlines, has been welcomed internationally, with the EU and UK lifting bans on the airline after four and five years, respectively.
Nepal has secured UN-CEDAW’s support for its proposal to lower the legal marriage age from 20 to 18, aligning it with global norms. Local contestation, however, remains. Meanwhile, the country recorded an 81.8 per cent surge in exports last fiscal year, driven largely by re-exports, with farm goods underperforming. Bilaterally, Nepal and India agreed to complete boundary demarcation within three years — excluding the contested Kalapani and Susta regions. This marks a significant step in resolving long-standing border issues.
Southeast Asia
President Trump announced two major trade deals with Indonesia and Vietnam aimed at reshaping US economic ties in Southeast Asia. The agreement with Indonesia imposes a 19 per cent tariff on Indonesian exports to the US while eliminating nearly all tariff and non-tariff barriers for US exports. It expands access for American agriculture, manufacturing, and digital industries, while committing Indonesia to regulatory reforms and stronger labour standards.
The Vietnam deal imposes a 20 per cent tariff on Vietnamese exports and a 40 per cent tariff on transshipped goods, while granting US products zero-tariff access to the Vietnamese market. Although some details remain unclear, Vietnam reportedly agreed to open its economy further and allow increased US exports, including large-engine cars. Both agreements reflect efforts by Indonesia and Vietnam to attract greater US investment and hedge against growing tensions with China.
Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to a ceasefire following five days of deadly border clashes that killed at least 38 people and displaced thousands. Brokered by President Trump and Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, the agreement aims to halt troop movements, improve communication, and also form a joint working group. While both militaries pledged to de-escalate, Thailand accused Cambodia of violating the truce. Despite tensions, local commanders met and expressed hope that sustained cooperation could return the region to stability.
In his State of the Nation address, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. highlighted growing security alliances with the US and other Western nations amid escalating tensions with China in the South China Sea. He pledged reforms at home, vowing to combat corruption, improve disaster response, and address poverty. His speech came as deadly storms displaced more than 200,000 people nationwide. Marcos also addressed strained ties with Vice President Sara Duterte, who was impeached earlier this year over criminal allegations.
East Asia
In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, Komeito, lost their upper house majority for the first time since the LDP’s founding in 1955, following their defeat in the lower house in October 2024. The election saw the rise of Sanseito, a far-right party which surged from one seat to 15, driven by frustration over rising living costs and a growing sense of nationalism. The party's "Japan First" slogan resonated with voters disillusioned by the political status quo. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, under pressure to resign, plans to remain in office to manage key issues, including US tariff negotiations. With the LDP now in the minority, it will face challenges in passing legislation, and a prolonged period of domestic instability could limit Japan’s foreign policy flexibility in the near term.
In South Korea, President Lee Jae-myun is reevaluating the country’s Indo-Pacific Strategy and is expected to shift towards a more "pragmatic" approach, focusing on core national interests and engaging China. This would mark a shift from Yoon Suk-yeol’s strategy of positioning South Korea as a "Global Pivotal State" with stronger ties to NATO and Europe. However, Lee’s approach should not be seen as a pivot to China at the expense of the US. In addition to persistent bilateral tensions — including South Koreans' negative views of China, cyberattacks, and structure building in the East China Sea — Lee has made clear he will prioritise the US alliance. For further insights, see Ramon Pacheco Pardo’s appearance on the German Marshall Fund’s China Global Podcast.
China hosted the World AI Conference and Global AI Governance Summit in Shanghai from 26-28 July, where Premier Li Qiang unveiled an “AI Global Governance Action Plan”, underscoring Beijing’s ambition to position itself as a global convenor and standard-setter in AI governance. Just days earlier, Beijing held the 25th China-EU Summit. While expectations were low, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the relationship as at an ‘inflection point’ following her meeting with President Xi. Despite ongoing strains in the EU-US relationship, Beijing has not adopted a more conciliatory stance toward Europe. As Brad W. Setser wrote this month, China is fighting — and winning — a trade war with the EU.
In Taiwan, a recall movement to unseat 24 Kuomintang (KMT) legislators ended in a significant defeat for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), with all targeted lawmakers surviving the vote. Another seven KMT lawmakers will face recall votes on 23 August, but they are also expected to fail. The result should not be interpreted as a surge in pro-China sentiment on the island, but rather as a reflection of voter support for the current system of checks and balances. Nonetheless, the result, which leaves the legislature under KMT control, is a major blow to President William Lai, who will continue to struggle to advance his legislative agenda, particularly in defence modernisation and weapons procurement. Academia Sinica political scientist Nathan Batto provides an insightful analysis on where Taiwanese politics go next after the vote.
The Pacific
Australia and the UK signed a 50-year submarine defence partnership treaty to deepen cooperation. The agreement paves the way for extensive collaboration on the design, construction, operation, maintenance, and eventual disposal of submarines, supporting Australia's efforts to acquire advanced capabilities under the AUKUS programme.
The UK and US formed a double carrier strike group in the Pacific for Exercise Talisman Sabre 25, a major Operation Highmast deployment involving over 35,000 personnel from 19 nations. The exercise demonstrated advanced AUKUS technologies and reinforced Britain’s Indo-Pacific commitments. Canberra’s “rugby diplomacy” faces scrutiny, with the Lowy Institute suggesting the need for a more strategic approach to leveraging soft power through sport.
Meanwhile, Papua New Guinea is also hosting a major military exercise with Australia as part of Exercise Talisman Sabre 25, focused on humanitarian assistance, disaster response, and defence cooperation.
The Royal New Zealand Air Force established its first dedicated space unit, marking its entry into space-based defence. New Zealand also deployed a combat-ready infantry platoon to South Korea to train with Korean and US forces, enhancing interoperability and readiness. New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon announced Wellington will not yet adopt the UK’s position on Palestinian statehood, reaffirming its commitment to a two-state solution negotiated directly by the parties. The FBI has opened its first office in New Zealand to ‘counter China and cybercrime’, with the US claiming it will boost Five Eyes security and support US–NZ cooperation on global issues.
Despite tensions between the Cook Islands and New Zealand over a fishing declaration and broader geopolitical alignments, NZ Deputy PM Winston Peters maintains that Pacific regional unity remains intact.
Solomon Islands PM Jeremiah Manele visited New Zealand for discussions on bilateral ties, regional challenges, and ongoing support for the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force.
The Cook Islands continues to navigate its positioning between Western partners and China, emphasising an approach that prioritises partners who respect sovereignty and deliver tangible benefits. Fiji’s PM Sitiveni Rabuka publicly stated that a permanent Chinese military presence in the Pacific is unwelcome, reflecting regional sensitivity to external military influence.
Palau has strengthened defence cooperation with the United States, which plans to expand military infrastructure, including significant upgrades to Palau’s main harbour. However, concerns persist about China-linked organised crime investments in hotels and other strategic locations overlooking key US infrastructure, potentially enabling electronic surveillance by China.
Nauru is advancing legislation to become a cryptocurrency hub as part of its push for financial diversification, while simultaneously facing international scrutiny and domestic debate over deep-sea phosphate mining due to environmental concerns. New Caledonia is poised for statehood under a historic agreement with France, which will grant greater autonomy while maintaining its political status within the French Republic.
Vanuatu is seeking Hong Kong’s support for digital finance infrastructure as it moves toward a more technologically advanced economy. Over 80 per cent of Tuvalu’s population has applied for Australia’s climate mobility visa programme in response to rising sea levels. Tuvalu is also seeking an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice to clarify states’ obligations to future generations under international climate law.
Tonga is considering a new deep-sea mining deal with The Metals Company, raising environmental concerns about the potential impact on its marine ecosystem. Samoa is set to hold a general election on 29 August amid political tension, with opposition leader Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi calling for a change in leadership following recent instability.
Finally, the UK’s Royal Air Force conducted operations in Guam, deploying a P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft to showcase integrated Western capabilities and power projection.
THE BEST OF 9DASHLINE
This month, 9DASHLINE turns its spotlight to Europe’s evolving ties with the Indo-Pacific, exploring how strategic autonomy, technology, and connectivity are shaping new pathways in a complex global landscape.
From the delicate balancing act at the landmark EU–China summit and the promise of a trilateral EU–Taiwan–ASEAN partnership offering an alternative to China’s Belt and Road, to Taiwan’s cutting-edge drone innovation seeking deeper European support and France’s recalibrated Indo-Pacific engagement through a long-term partnership with Indonesia, Europe’s multifaceted role amid great power competition is clear. These timely analyses unpack how that role is evolving across the region.
Dive into these insights to better understand how pragmatic cooperation and flexible alliances are redefining Europe’s influence in one of the world’s most dynamic regions.
DIPLOMACY IN AN AGE OF DISRUPTION: THE EU-CHINA SUMMIT
The delicate balance between cooperation and competition was under the spotlight at the 50th-anniversary EU–China summit on 24 July. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signalled renewed engagement, showing a desire to expand trade and investment ties with China despite ongoing concerns about strategic risks and economic dependencies. Meanwhile, China viewed US tariffs and geopolitical tensions as an opportunity to strengthen its relationship with Europe, urging multilateralism and a fair global order.
In this insightful long read, Gunnar Wiegand (Visiting Distinguished Fellow, German Marshall Fund) argues that as EU companies endure growing uncertainty caught in the US-China crossfire, the summit may yield limited progress on market access and cooperation, but also risks exposing the EU as a new battleground in great power rivalry.
With sensitive issues like Taiwan, regional security, and global challenges in the background, both sides must navigate a high-stakes path between competition and constructive engagement to preserve stability and protect their vital interests.
BUILDING BRIDGES: EU-TAIWAN–ASEAN CONNECTIVITY FOR A MULTIPOLAR WORLD
In a shifting geopolitical landscape marked by supply chain shocks and rising regional tensions, Dr Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy (Adjunct Assistant Professor, National Dong-Hwa University) and Julia Gurol-Haller (Research Fellow, German Institute for Global Area Studies) argue that the EU, Taiwan, and ASEAN are uniquely positioned to forge a trilateral connectivity dialogue offering a transparent, values-driven alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
As Southeast Asia’s digital economy booms and climate pressures mount, this partnership aims to align infrastructure investment, digital governance, and sustainability goals to enhance resilience and strategic autonomy. Yet, competing pressures from the US and China, coupled with ASEAN’s complex balancing act, pose challenges to deeper cooperation.
The authors highlight that success hinges on pragmatic collaboration, leveraging Taiwan’s technological strengths and the EU’s development finance to empower ASEAN countries and help shape a more inclusive and stable regional order.
A MISSING LINK: TAIWAN’S DRONE INNOVATION NEEDS EUROPE’S SUPPORT
In June, Taiwan quietly unveiled a new generation of autonomous sea drones, signalling a shift in its defence strategy inspired by Ukraine’s innovative use of unmanned naval systems against Russian forces.
Thijs Stegeman (PhD Candidate at National Dong Hwa University) highlights how Taiwan’s layered defence doctrine, updated in its 2025 Quadrennial Defence Review, prioritises scaling drone production to counterbalance China’s military edge. Despite technological strengths and growing partnerships with European allies, Taiwan faces significant hurdles — including high costs, supply chain restrictions, and limited procurement — that hamper rapid expansion.
Stegeman argues that granting Taiwan access to Europe’s Readiness 2030 initiative could accelerate joint investment, secure “non-Red” supply chains, and enhance European drone capabilities, forging a pragmatic path for closer defence collaboration without the political sensitivities of a formal security partnership. Without such coordinated support, Taiwan risks falling behind in a drone arms race critical to its asymmetric deterrence.
INDONESIA, FRANCE, AND THE LOGIC OF STRATEGIC AUTONOMY
During his May 2025 visit to Jakarta, French President Emmanuel Macron went beyond headline-grabbing arms deals to forge a long-term strategic partnership with Indonesia centred on autonomy and diversification amid rising global uncertainty.
Aniello Iannone (Lecturer, Diponegoro University) explains how the Horizon 2050 Joint Declaration reflects a pragmatic, interest-driven alliance spanning defence, energy, education, and maritime security — underscoring Indonesia’s flexible “bebas-aktif” foreign policy that hedges between major powers rather than aligning fully. For France, the visit marked a recalibration towards deeper Indo-Pacific engagement through middle-power minilateralism, offering an alternative to dominant US-led security architectures.
Iannone argues that this evolving partnership highlights how Indonesia is shaping its own strategic environment by balancing multiple ties, and how France seeks to maintain relevance by respecting national sovereignty and building layered, long-term cooperation beyond transactional arms sales.
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