THE NAVIGATOR
SEPTEMBER 2025
TWO FRONTS: NAVIGATING GEOPOLITICAL RIVALRY AND INTERNAL INSTABILITY
As the Trump administration’s inward focus and illiberal, anti-humanitarian policies hasten the unravelling of the international order, the Indo-Pacific — already caught in the throes of intensifying great power competition — is now grappling with a complex and volatile period of domestic instability. From popular protests to government fragility, this internal turmoil is a key constraint for nations trying to adapt their security and defence strategies to the external environment.
Even as countries like Pakistan and South Korea seek to diversify their alliances and bolster self-reliance in response to the US-China rivalry, their ability to devote full attention and resources is limited by persistent internal dissent. This dynamic creates a vicious cycle, where domestic crises both distract from and weaken a nation’s ability to navigate the complex geopolitical flux of the wider Indo-Pacific.
Our brief this month considers Beijing’s strategic response to this dual set of pressures, as it leverages the solemn observance of Martyrs’ Day not merely as a domestic tool to reinforce loyalty, but also as a strategic international signal of its unwavering resolve on core national interests.
With the future of the global system uncertain, it is vital to pay close attention to international organisations and relationships not influenced by US participation, as they may become the foundation of a new multipolar order.
Check out the latest episode of our podcast, The Bridge, for a discussion of the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, with a particular focus on India’s role and the evolving dynamics between the European Union and ASEAN.
As the Indo-Pacific continues to shift, 9DASHLINE delivers the sharp, timely analysis you need to stay ahead of the curve.
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VICTORY AND SACRIFICE: THE DUAL MESSAGE BEHIND CHINA’S COMMEMORATIONS
Vincent K.L. Chang - Assistant Professor at Leiden University
On 30 September, the eve of China’s National Day (1 October), the Chinese people will observe Martyrs’ Day, a solemn occasion honouring those who gave their lives for national sovereignty, prosperity and peace. Instituted in 2014 alongside Victory Day (3 September) and the National Memorial Day for the Nanjing Massacre (13 December), these commemorations form a triad of remembrance that has become central to China’s domestic narrative and global messaging.
Martyrs’ Day is not mere symbolism about the past. It reflects a forward-looking strategy to cultivate public resolve and readiness in an era of rising geopolitical tension. While Victory Day celebrates what Beijing sees as the gains of World War II — national sovereignty, regional stability, a multilateral order, and global peace — Martyrs’ Day signals the cost of upholding those achievements. It is a reminder that peace is hard-won, must be treasured, and may require sacrifice to preserve.
The timing is deliberate and historically resonant. On the evening of 30 September 1949, the day before the founding of the People’s Republic, Mao Zedong laid the foundation stone for the Monument to the People’s Heroes, which still stands at the heart of Tiananmen Square. Remembering these heroes links personal sacrifice to national aspiration, reinforcing loyalty to both party and state.
Next week’s Martyrs’ Day also serves as a warning: China will not yield in what it perceives as its core interests — whether in Taiwan, the South China Sea, or broader sovereignty concerns — nor will it abandon its advocacy for regional peace and a global order rooted in the UN and the Bretton Woods institutions. In Beijing’s view, recent US displays of unilateralism and intensifying militarisation echo the conditions that led to World War II. Commemorations such as Martyrs’ Day ought to be seen as helping to prepare the public for sacrifice and endurance, should confrontation become unavoidable.
Too often, Western observers misread these events as nationalist theatre or historical revisionism. Yet they are better understood as strategic messaging: a preference for peace, paired with preparation for sacrifice if its terms cannot be met. China is urging the world — especially the United States and its allies — to avoid self-fulfilling threat perceptions and to recommit to global cooperation and coexistence. Strategic concessions and genuine engagement with the Global South, rather than escalation or ideological entrenchment, form Beijing’s proposed path forward.
* A more in-depth analysis on this issue by the author will be published in 9DASHLINE in the days ahead.
ACROSS THE INDO-PACIFIC
South Asia
A series of earthquakes struck Afghanistan this month, leaving over 2,000 dead and several thousand displaced as infrastructure collapsed. Relief efforts have been hampered by limited state capacity, prompting emergency aid from regional partners and UN agencies. Tensions also flared with Washington after President Trump sought renewed access to the former Bagram airbase, which the Taliban rejected outright.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif concluded a landmark visit to Saudi Arabia, where the two states signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement. This agreement deepens an already long-standing defence relationship between Islamabad and Riyadh. The pact commits both countries to treating an attack on one as an attack on both, with the possibility of Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities being extended to the kingdom’s security if needed. The deal signals Saudi Arabia’s bid to diversify its security interests away from reliance on the United States, particularly in light of Israeli strikes on Qatar.
Nepal was rocked by massive “Gen Z”-led protests that escalated into violent clashes, resulting in over 70 deaths and the resignation of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. Protesters, angered by corruption, censorship, nepotism, and economic mismanagement, stormed key government offices, forcing the ruling coalition to collapse — marking yet another South Asian government brought down by popular mobilisation in recent years. In an exception to the constitution, the former Chief Justice Sushila Karki was sworn in as interim prime minister, becoming Nepal’s first female Prime Minister.
In India, C.P. Radhakrishnan was elected as the 15th Vice President after Jagdeep Dhankhar resigned, citing health reasons, though reports suggested he had fallen out of favour with the BJP leadership. On the economic front, the government unveiled Goods and Services Tax reforms, reducing the system to just two tax slabs in an effort to simplify compliance and boost revenues. Meanwhile, protests in Ladakh intensified, with residents demanding statehood, constitutional safeguards under the Sixth Schedule, and better infrastructure development, keeping the Union Territory firmly in the national headlines.
Southeast Asia
In the Philippines, protests erupted in Manila as public outrage boiled over following revelations of government corruption in flood control projects. Two Philippine senators have been tied to the ongoing corruption investigation, which has prompted the speaker of the House of Representatives, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s cousin to resign. The escalating political crisis has quickly become a decisive moment as Marcos approaches the end of his third year in office. Meanwhile, in The Hague, the ICC has charged former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte with crimes against humanity.
Earlier this month, protests erupted across several regions in Indonesia, prompting President Prabowo to delay his trip to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Summit and Victory Day parade. Citizens denounced what they see as unfair pay for legislators, as economic inequality worsens and the price of basic goods continue to rise. Protesters attacked parliamentary buildings and set vehicles on fire, while police killed a motorbike delivery driver amid the violence, which has claimed the lives of at least ten Indonesians. In response, President Prabowo instituted a speedy cabinet reshuffle, replacing five ministers.
In Thailand, new Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, the third in two years, was sworn in on 7 September after securing support from military-aligned parties in Parliament. Anutin, a former businessman and leader of the Bhumjaithai Party, is seen as a conservative ally of the powerful Thai Army. On 24 September, the prime minister announced plans to dissolve parliament by the end of January, with a general election scheduled for March or early April.
In Moscow, President Putin met with Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, where the two leaders emphasised the decades-long relationship between their countries. Discussions focused on deepening diplomatic engagement, including plans to expand their respective diplomatic presences.
Laos, long known as the ‘battery of Southeast Asia’, is exploring cryptocurrency mining as a way to finance its ambitious dam-building programme. Saddled with debt yet generating a surplus of electricity, it now sees energy-intensive crypto operations as a key source of income.
East Asia
China marked the 80th anniversary of Japan’s surrender with a massive military parade in Beijing showcasing its full nuclear triad and hypersonic weapons, underscoring its deterrence message. At the Xiangshan Forum held from 17-19 September, Defence Minister Dong Jun warned against “hegemonic logic” — a veiled reference to the US — and reaffirmed red lines on Taiwan, while Xi announced a new Global Governance Initiative at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to frame China as a rule-shaper.
Meanwhile, Premier Li Qiang announced China would forgo special privileges in future WTO negotiations, signalling its intent to act more like a developed power. At sea, the PLA’s latest aircraft carrier showcased a new fighter jet launch system, highlighting the PLA’s rapid modernisation. Beijing also declared a “marine reserve” around the disputed Scarborough Shoal, reinforcing its territorial claims under the guise of conservation.
In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced on 7 September that he will resign after the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered disastrous back-to-back election defeats, losing its majority in both houses of parliament. Leading the race to replace him is Sanae Takaichi, a close ally of late Shinzo Abe known for her nationalistic views.
However, the party is divided over whether to pursue a conservative nationalist stance or pivot towards a centrist, reform-oriented image, embodied by figures such as Shinjiro Koizumi. Separately, Ishiba is to travel to Busan, South Korea, on 30 September to meet with President Lee, in a further sign of warming bilateral ties amid geopolitical flux.
In South Korea, President Lee Jae Myung wrote on Facebook that the country must shed the “submissive thinking” that it cannot defend itself without foreign troops, calling for strengthening comprehensive national power to enhance self-reliance. “The entire world is heading beyond conflict and confrontation toward extreme confrontation and large-scale armed clashes”, he wrote. This warning comes amid widespread outrage over the arrest of South Korean workers by US immigration agents and a broader deterioration in relations linked to Trump’s economic policies.
Taiwan has released an updated National Defence Handbook aimed at boosting public awareness and crisis preparedness. Compared with previous editions, it places greater emphasis on wartime scenarios, reflecting a broader shift towards “whole-of-society” readiness amid rising cross-Strait tensions.
Meanwhile, the Kuomintang (KMT) will hold its chairmanship election on 18 October, with all six candidates uniting around a policy of more engagement with Beijing. The outcome could determine the future direction of the party — either doubling down on its pro-Beijing orientation or recalibrating towards a more sovereignty-conscious stance to appeal to centrist voters — ahead of national elections in 2026 and 2028.
Pacific Islands
This month saw the Pacific Islands Forum take place in Honiara, the Solomon Islands. Official PIF Communique and key takeaways.
In the Cook Islands, top diplomat Tepaeru Herrmann resigned amid diplomatic tensions with New Zealand over agreements signed with China in February, after months of Wellington pressing for transparency.
Kiribati President Taneti Maamau criticised New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters for making a “fuss” over a cancelled meeting earlier this year, asserting that the proposed dates were inconvenient and reaffirming that Peters remains welcome to visit at his convenience.
Vanuatu and China formalised agreements on police cooperation, including the provision of equipment and training. Meanwhile, the Red Cross, supported by the EU, launched a climate resilience initiative across Kiribati and Vanuatu. French Polynesia called for a moratorium on deep-sea mining, emphasising environmental and sovereignty issues.
In Niue, Australia has funded the restoration of TV services, leading to improved infrastructure and greater access to regional information. Palau’s president has accused China of seeking to weaken his government’s influence. Palau has also proposed monthly joint Coast Guard patrols with Taiwan to enhance deterrence in the West Pacific, which comes after Taiwan’s Coast Guard’s first-ever “fleet of friendship” visit.
Fiji moved to open an embassy in Jerusalem despite widespread criticism, reflecting a continued willingness to expand its diplomatic footprint. China reaffirmed support for Fiji’s development programs. In Tonga, Australia delivered a landing vessel to strengthen maritime security and disaster response and hosted the Tongan royal family during an official visit.
In the Solomon Islands, China is piloting a village-level surveillance program integrating household registration, biometric data collection, and community mapping, framed as a tool for social stability. Local legislators and civil society have raised concerns over privacy and constitutional rights. Separately, the EU moved to fund urban water and sanitation projects in the islands.
New Caledonia saw the French Constitutional Council uphold a frozen electoral list ahead of Citizenship Day, prompting tight security in Nouméa amid heightened tensions. Bougainville has extended the deadline for electoral writ returns as the autonomous region continues to express concern about the presence of New Zealand Defence Force personnel.
Papua New Guinea is negotiating a careful balancing act as Australia seeks to finalise the Pukpuk defence treaty that could see Australia and PNG become formal military allies and commit to defending each other in the event of a military attack. Nevertheless, delays persist, while China warned against exclusivity clauses that could restrict PNG’s engagements with other partners.
Meanwhile, a Chinese PLAN hospital ship recently visited Nauru, where it held an open day for local residents. Australia is moving forward with its migration policy, sending hundreds of migrants to Nauru under a $1.6 billion resettlement deal.
China publicly criticised New Zealand for alleged mistreatment of its citizens at airports, while New Zealand, meanwhile, eased residency restrictions for foreign nationals, as citizens leave in record numbers. Wellington is investing NZ$35 million to replace obsolete naval systems following the high-profile loss of a survey ship 11 months ago.
Finally, in Samoa, Laaulialemalietoa Schmidt was sworn in as the nation’s eighth prime minister following recent elections.
THE BEST OF 9DASHLINE
This month, some of our best reads focus on the shifting architecture of power and partnership in the Indo-Pacific, where transactional politics, middle-power diplomacy, and technological competition are reshaping the region’s future.
From Washington’s “America First” test of Blue Pacific partnerships and Italy’s deepening engagement with Malaysia as a gateway to Southeast Asia, to calls for the EU to match values with pragmatism and the intensifying contest between India and China these analyses reveal how economic, security, and institutional choices are intertwined with broader questions of credibility and influence.
Together, they spotlight the trade-offs, alignments, and innovations driving the Indo-Pacific’s evolving order — and what they mean for both regional actors and global powers seeking to engage on their own terms.
NAVIGATING PARTNERSHIPS: THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION MEETS THE BLUE PACIFIC
Six months into the Trump Administration’s return, a more transactional, “America First” foreign policy has taken shape, with Secretary of State Rubio framing every initiative around three tests: does it make America stronger, safer, and more prosperous?
Jemima Holborow (Asia Society Policy Institute) examines how this outlook intersects with the Pacific Islands’ own 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent. She highlights areas of alignment — from defence access under COFA agreements and coast guard cooperation to digital infrastructure, tuna fisheries, and private-sector investment — while underscoring deep divergences on climate change, the region’s top security concern. Holborow argues that credibility in the Pacific will require not just transactional deals, but consistent engagement and respect for the region’s self-identified priorities.
ITALY–MALAYSIA RELATIONS: A CORNERSTONE OF ROME’S INDO-PACIFIC ENGAGEMENT
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s July summit marked a turning point in bilateral ties, elevating Rome–Putrajaya relations into one of Europe’s most substantive partnerships in Southeast Asia.
Emanuele Ballestracci (University of Turin) argues that Italy’s pragmatic, private-sector-driven approach — blending economic cooperation, defence deals, and multilateral engagement — has positioned Rome as a credible partner despite lacking the hard-power assets of France or the UK.
The Italy–Malaysia case, he suggests, illustrates how European middle powers can remain relevant in the Indo-Pacific: by leveraging trade, investment, and institutional ties as stepping stones to deeper political and security cooperation, while carefully managing relations with Beijing.
THE EUROPEAN UNION NEEDS A MORE PRAGMATIC FOREIGN POLICY IN THE INDO-PACIFIC
At the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, Emmanuel Macron framed Europe as a committed actor in the Indo-Pacific, but as Angelo M’BA (Tsinghua University) argues, the EU’s values-based foreign policy risks undermining its credibility when paired with double standards — especially in the wake of Gaza.
While the EU champions democracy and human rights in its Indo-Pacific strategy, many regional actors view it as moralising and hypocritical. M’BA suggests the Union must first deliver tangible economic and security benefits — as seen in trade agreements with Indonesia, Japan, and Singapore, or France’s defence deals — if it hopes to be respected as a long-term partner, and only then advance its values.
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The Navigator is produced by:
Hunter Marston, Daniel McIntyre, Luana Correia, Chetan Rana, Dr Manali Kumar and David MacSweeney
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