THE NAVIGATOR
JANUARY 2025
A TUMULTUOUS START TO 2025
By Dr Manali Kumar, Editor-in-Chief at 9DASHLINE
The new year has barely begun, yet the world is already grappling with fresh waves of political and economic upheaval. In the West, the crisis of democracy deepens — Canada faces an unexpected leadership transition with Prime Minister Trudeau’s resignation. At the same time, the US saw President Trump return to office with sweeping executive orders reshaping foreign policy and international commitments. In Europe, Germany’s prolonged economic downturn has led to warnings of its “greatest crisis in post-war history”. Meanwhile, tensions escalate in East Asia, with South Korea in political turmoil after President Yoon’s dramatic impeachment and arrest, North Korea resuming missile launches, and Taiwan facing new security threats. As uncertainty grows across multiple fronts, 2025 is shaping up to be a defining year for global stability — or the lack thereof.
In this January edition of The Navigator — 9DASHLINE’s flagship newsletter — our briefs reflect on Western hypocrisy and revisit the definition of the Indo-Pacific construct. The Gaza conflict is reshaping global geopolitics, deepening divisions within the EU, fueling anti-Western sentiment in the Global South, and intensifying US-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific. With Western responses reinforcing accusations of hypocrisy, China has seized the opportunity to position itself as a peace broker and expand its influence, particularly in Southeast Asia. Considering the Western flank of the Indo-Pacific, our second brief makes the case for recognising Kenya — an important regional power strategically located along the Indian Ocean — as part of the Indo-Pacific.
Several key trends emerged across the Indo-Pacific this month. Economic realignment and strategic partnerships are shaping regional dynamics, with countries like Indonesia strengthening ties with India and Japan, while China deepens its influence in Sri Lanka and the Pacific. Security challenges remain prominent, from heightened tensions in the South China Sea to counterterrorism efforts in South Asia and Australia’s expanding defence cooperation. Technology and trade disputes, including Chinese EV expansion and AI advancements, highlight growing economic and geopolitical competition, particularly between the US and China.
We are also delighted to share the latest episode of our podcast THE BRIDGE, produced in collaboration with the European Parliament in ASEAN.
Listen in as David MacSweeney, the founder of 9DASHLINE, and I join Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy and Richard Heydarian to discuss some of the trends and developments we will be watching in 2025. Stay tuned for new episodes throughout the year.
The Indo-Pacific is undergoing rapid shifts, with political, economic, and security developments reshaping regional dynamics. As 2025 unfolds, the trajectory of these changes remains uncertain, making it more important than ever to stay informed. The Navigator will continue to provide expert analysis and in-depth coverage, helping you navigate the region’s evolving landscape.
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WESTERN HYPOCRISY AND CHINESE OPPORTUNISM: THE GEOPOLITICAL FALLOUT FROM GAZA
By David MacSweeney, Founder at 9DASHLINE
"Clean out the whole thing" — President Trump's recent suggestion regarding Gaza — risks further inflaming already white-hot tensions in the region. The geopolitical consequences of the ongoing conflict extend far beyond the enclave’s meagre 141-square-kilometre territory, reshaping global alignments and intensifying longstanding tensions.
In Europe, the conflict has deepened divisions within the European Union, complicating efforts to establish a unified position. Germany and Ireland epitomise the stark contrast in international approaches to the conflict, particularly regarding calls for a ceasefire and commitment to international law. This difference has been most evident in the timing of their respective ceasefire calls and the clarity of their positions on their adherence to ICC arrest warrants. These differences highlight the broader challenge of balancing historical alliances with shifting geopolitical realities.
In the Global South, Western responses to Gaza have reinforced long-standing accusations of hypocrisy. The profound suffering and internal displacement of over 1.5 million Palestinians since the 7 October attack is fuelling deep resentment, further alienating nations already sceptical of Western commitments to human rights and international norms.
In the Indo-Pacific, the Gaza crisis has become another battleground in the ongoing rivalry between China and the United States. Beijing’s move to frame Israel’s actions in Gaza as "collective punishment" has resonated deeply in nations with significant Muslim populations. With nearly half of the population in countries like Malaysia and Indonesia under the age of 30, heightened media coverage and humanitarian concerns are likely to further inflame public sentiment. The conflict also poses security risks for several ASEAN nations. The potential for radicalisation could embolden Islamist militant groups such as the quietly resurgent Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in the Philippines, as well as other splinter groups in the region. This risks destabilising key US allies at a time when democracy is increasingly under strain, and many states are relying on a US presence to support the rules-based order.
China, meanwhile, has seized the moment to position itself as a peace broker, leveraging pre-existing anti-Western sentiment in Southeast Asia (and elsewhere). Historical grievances over European colonialism — marked by economic inequality and the selective application of moral standards — continue to hold political weight, allowing Beijing to exploit these narratives to deepen its regional influence. By portraying the US as the primary obstacle to a ceasefire and therefore responsible for prolonging the Gaza war, China is further undermining America’s reputation in the Indo-Pacific. This fits within its broader strategy of challenging US influence and presenting itself as a more reliable partner to Southeast Asian nations.
Compounding the issue, Trump’s rhetoric about bringing weaker countries — such as Canada, Greenland (Denmark), and Panama (canal) — under greater US control is only serving to reinforce the perception of American unpredictability. With Washington's credibility increasingly in question, Beijing could soon be seen as the more stable, long-term alternative.
PUTTING KENYA BACK INTO THE INDO-PACIFIC
By Connor Fiddler, Principal Coordinator at 9DASHLINE
Kenya, traditionally viewed as a key African power, deserves recognition as an integral part of the Indo-Pacific. Its strategic location along the Indian Ocean makes it a crucial bridge between Africa and Asia, linking the continent to the geopolitical and economic dynamics shaping this increasingly significant region.
The Indo-Pacific concept itself originated not in Washington but in Tokyo. In 2007, then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe introduced the idea of a “free and open Indo-Pacific” in a speech delivered in Nairobi, underscoring Kenya’s significance in this framework from the outset. The Indian Ocean, long a vital maritime crossroads, has historically connected East Africa with the Middle East, South Asia, and beyond. Kenya’s bustling port of Mombasa sits at the heart of these trade routes, facilitating commerce with key Indo-Pacific economies such as India and Japan. With a GDP of USD 100 billion and growing influence in technology, energy, and trade, Kenya is an economic powerhouse with deep stakes in the region’s future.
Beyond trade, Kenya is an active security player. Its role in counterterrorism operations, regional stability efforts, and participation in organisations like the Indian Ocean Rim Association, demonstrate its commitment to Indo-Pacific security. Kenya’s support of operations against the Houthi Rebels in the Red Sea further underscores its strategic importance, so much so that Washington recently designated it a “major non-NATO ally”.
Recognising Kenya as part of the Indo-Pacific is not just symbolic, it’s a strategic necessity. Integrating Kenya into regional institutions like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and the ASEAN Regional Forum would enhance economic ties, support green energy supply chains, and bolster regional security cooperation. As the US deepens multilateral security cooperation through the Quad and AUKUS, Kenya could offer critical naval access and operational support. Ignoring Kenya’s role in the Indo-Pacific not only limits regional economic potential but also weakens collective security at a time of growing geopolitical competition.
ACROSS THE INDO-PACIFIC
South Asia
2024 was a turbulent year for Pakistan. Amidst the mass protests in support of former PM Imran Khan and violence in Balochistan, rescuing a fledgling economy and securing an IMF bailout was the government’s main agenda. Islamabad has also now launched a five-year economic transformation plan ‘Uraan Pakistan’ to drive private investments and increase jobs, strengthen Pakistan’s merchandise exports, and optimise public finances. Despite its ambition to address fundamental issues of the economy and fuel export-driven growth, experts are concerned about its ‘vague strategies’ and detachment from Pakistan’s current political and economic realities. The political instability, internationally tarnished image, and troubled relations with its neighbours – India and Afghanistan – might prove to be key stumbling blocks.
Maldivian Foreign and Defence Ministers visited India to strengthen bilateral ties and continue normalising relations following last year’s diplomatic spat between Male and New Delhi. Talks included the supply of Advanced Light Helicopters, and India gifted Maldives defence equipment worth USD 4 million. In a similar effort to ease tensions, India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, visited China for discussions on bilateral issues, particularly the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The planned resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra marks a positive step towards normalisation.
Sri Lankan President Dissanayake visited China this month. Both countries reaffirmed their commitment to Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, including the development of Colombo Port City and an oil refinery at Hambantota. As Sri Lanka’s biggest creditor and investor, China remains central to the island’s economic recovery. Ongoing discussions on a China-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement signal deepening economic ties.
Shortly after taking office, US President Donald Trump suspended aid to Bangladesh, in sharp contrast to the support Dhaka previously received from Democrats. India is also concerned over the increased engagement between Islamabad and Dhaka. Bangladesh recently announced direct flights to Pakistan, and Lt. Gen. Kamr-ul-Hassan’s visit to Islamabad included discussions on deepening bilateral military cooperation while emphasising the need to limit “external influences”.
Southeast Asia
Indonesia has strengthened its strategic partnerships with India and Japan, advancing cooperation in defence, trade, and regional stability, while carefully balancing its relations with China and the US. In discussions with Indian Prime Minister Modi, Indonesian President Prabowo focused on defence manufacturing, maritime security, and economic collaboration. Similar talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasised expanding defence, energy, and technology ties. As Indonesia deepens its engagement with India and Japan, the US and China will closely watch its evolving role in regional security and seek to leverage these partnerships to address emerging geopolitical challenges.
Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers, including GAC and BYD, are aggressively expanding into Southeast Asia’s luxury car market, with GAC's Hyptec debuting a premium SUV in Singapore. Mitsubishi Motors CEO Takao Kato criticised China’s overproduction of EVs, which are flooding markets like Thailand at discounted prices, intensifying competition for Japanese automakers. Despite price pressures, Mitsubishi remains focused on maintaining its market share by prioritising brand image and quality over cost-cutting.
The Philippines suspended a scientific survey mission in the South China Sea after its vessels were harassed by China’s Coast Guard and navy near Sandy Cay. The incident involved aggressive manoeuvres by Chinese vessels and a hovering Chinese military helicopter, creating unsafe conditions for Philippine ships. In response, the Philippine government plans to file a diplomatic protest, highlighting China’s continued harassment and reaffirming its territorial rights in the disputed waters.
East Asia
China is building a vast military command centre near Beijing, covering 1,500 acres, set to be far larger than the Pentagon. This project is part of China's broader military modernisation, which includes naval expansion and missile advancements, aimed at boosting strategic capabilities and global influence.
The release of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI assistant matching or exceeding the capabilities of leading US models, has prompted debate over the efficacy of US export controls and stirred doubts about American technological dominance. South Korea's information privacy watchdog intends to question DeepSeek about its handling of users' personal information. For more insights, see AI expert Miles Brundage's fascinating appearance on China Talk following DeepSeek’s release.
In South Korea former President Yoon Suk Yeol has been indicted on insurrection charges following his brief declaration of martial law in December. If convicted, he faces severe penalties, including life imprisonment or the death penalty, though South Korea has not carried out an execution in several decades. Meanwhile, as the Constitutional Court deliberates on his impeachment, his supporters continue daily protests, blending evangelical Christian practices with claims of a communist conspiracy. An Airbus plane caught fire while landing at South Korea's Busan airport, prompting the safe evacuation of all 176 passengers. The incident raises further concerns about air travel safety in South Korea.
Japan has again deployed fighter jets in response to Russian bombers flying over international waters surrounding the country. Meanwhile, British paratroopers and their Japanese counterparts have concluded a two-week joint defensive exercise in Japan. This collaboration aimed to enhance interoperability and strengthen military ties between the two nations.
Taiwan’s internal political divisions continue to hinder its ability to pursue long-term defence and security planning. The opposition KMT, which commands a legislative majority alongside the TPP, has passed budgetary cuts amounting to 34 per cent of the central government’s operational expenditure. Among other reductions, 30 per cent of a drone research and training program, seen as a key component of the “asymmetric” defence strategy, has been frozen. Three per cent of the military’s equipment and facilities budget will also be cut. These moves raise questions about Taiwan’s commitment to self-defence.
The Pacific
Australia faced renewed scrutiny this month following a UN ruling affirming its responsibility for individuals transferred to Nauru, reigniting debate about offshore processing and human rights. Meanwhile, Australian F-35s participated in joint drills in Guam alongside US and Japanese fighter jets, underscoring Australia's commitment to regional security and enhancing interoperability among allies. Separately, the ongoing presence of US Navy submarines in Guam further highlights the Pacific’s strategic significance for US naval power. The Marshall Islands has further deepened its defence partnership with the US, strengthening bilateral security ties.
New Caledonia elected France loyalist Alcide Ponga as its new president, shortly before hosting the inaugural congress of the International Decolonization Front (focused on former French colonies). Reports of Azerbaijani flags appearing again in Noumea have raised concerns about external interference in the region.
New Zealand's relationship with Israel has grown more complex due to a new requirement for Israeli citizens to disclose their Israel Defence Forces (IDF) service history when entering the country. Domestically, New Zealand continues to grapple with Treaty principles and the relationship between the Maori and the British Crown. New Zealand also held discussions with Samoa regarding compensation for the Manawanui sinking.
Palau, a diplomatic ally of Taiwan, reaffirmed its "friends to all, enemies to none" foreign policy during its recent presidential inauguration, which featured a fascinating mix of attendees and notable absences. Meanwhile, Samoa strengthened ties with China by signing a visa exemption agreement, reflecting growing Chinese influence in the Pacific. Tonga unveiled a new cabinet, appointing the Crown Prince as the Minister of Defence and Foreign Affairs. A diplomatic spat between Kiribati and New Zealand has raised concerns in Tarawa about potential reductions in New Zealand's development aid, which is crucial for the country's economy. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is now the Cook Islands' largest lender, making up 81 per cent of its debt portfolio in 2024-25. Tuvalu has benefited from a joint ADB-Australian initiative that delivered a new climate-resilient boat harbour in Nui, highlighting the focus on climate change adaptation in development projects. In Vanuatu, coalition talks have concluded with a signed agreement between political parties, potentially signalling greater political stability following December’s deadly 7.3 earthquake.
And finally, French telecommunications provider Orange is set to connect Wallis and Futuna Islands with O3b mPower satellite technology, underscoring the growing importance of satellite communications for bridging the digital divide in remote Pacific communities.
THE BEST OF 9DASHLINE
In case you missed them, here are some of 9DASHLINE's most insightful articles published this month exploring key emerging geopolitical trends in the Indo-Pacific.
SOUTH KOREA’S MARTIAL LAW MOMENT: CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS, AND THE REGIONAL ORDER
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s sudden declaration of martial law on 3 December 2024 triggered a national crisis and threw the country into political turmoil.
In this thoughtful piece, Dr Seohee Park (Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Tohoku University, and Lecturer, Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University) analyses the fallout from this declaration, which stemmed from plummeting approval ratings, political infighting, and allegations of corruption surrounding First Lady Kim Keon Hee. As Park explains, the crisis has significant regional implications, particularly for South Korea’s diplomatic standing, as the turmoil coincides with Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency and Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s push for a stronger regional security framework.
EUROPE BRACES FOR A TURBULENT RIDE WITH CHINA
The European Commission’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles late last year reflects growing concerns over state subsidies. Simultaneously, China’s massive stimulus package underscores its struggle with economic slowdown and weak domestic demand.
Bringing these dynamics together with the re-election of Donald Trump and the collapse of the German government, Victor De Decker (Research Fellow, Egmont Institute) questions Europe’s ability to negotiate with China while managing coercive pressure from the US and internal divisions. As China faces the decision of whether to offer economic concessions to sustain its access to the European market, ultimately, these events signal a challenging period ahead for European policymakers navigating trade, diplomacy, and economic strategy.
SANCTIONS ARE JUST ONE PART OF THE PUZZLE TO STOPPING MYANMAR’S MILITARY
As Myanmar approaches the fourth anniversary of its 2021 military coup, the junta continues its campaign of violence despite international pressure.
In this insightful piece, 9DASHLINE’s Southeast Asia Associate Hunter Marston analyses why Western sanctions have failed to alter the junta’s strategy of using airstrikes to suppress resistance. Marston argues that sanctions are more effective when paired with a broader diplomatic approach, as seen in Singapore’s policy shifts following international scrutiny, and calls for a coalition of actors — including governments, activists, and civil society — to work together to isolate the junta and push for negotiations.
ASIA’S CLIMATE PUZZLE: COP29 AND THE PATH FORWARD
COP29, held in Baku, highlighted both progress and challenges in global climate negotiations, including the operationalisation of the carbon market and the adoption of a USD 300 billion annual climate finance goal, though still far below the estimated USD 1.3 trillion needed.
Here, Betty Wang (Senior Program Officer, Asia Society Policy Institute) explores the complexities of climate change in Asia where major economies like China and India must balance development needs with climate responsibilities, while vulnerable Pacific Island nations struggle with existential threats. Reviewing how China and India positioned themselves at COP29, Wang argues that looking ahead to COP30, both countries must shift from reactive to proactive leadership, aligning domestic policies with global climate goals while ensuring more inclusive regional cooperation.
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The Navigator is produced by:
Connor Fiddler, Daniel McIntyre, Chetan Rana, Dr Manali Kumar and David MacSweeney
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