THE NAVIGATOR
November 2025
TWO FRAGMENTATIONS: SECURITY ARCS, COP COLLAPSE, AND THE CRISIS OF TRUST
By Dr. Manali Kumar, Editor-in-Chief at 9DASHLINE
In November, the Indo-Pacific was defined by a dangerous geopolitical paradox: fracturing global governance coupled with rapidly hardening regional security architectures. While major powers accelerate the construction of a new security order — highlighted by the United States green-lighting South Korea to develop nuclear-powered submarines, which may lead to a new north–south undersea arc for South Korea and Australia (the topic of our first brief this month), and Japan’s strategic shift on collective self-defence — the institutions meant to address transnational challenges are collapsing. The near-failure of COP30 — discussed in our second brief — marked by the US absence and the failure to forge a binding fossil-fuel roadmap, exemplifies the erosion of global consensus.
This external fragmentation is amplified by the dominance of severe domestic and governance crises across the region. Political stability is threatened by the weaponisation of justice in Bangladesh (the Hasina extradition crisis) and by the spiralling corruption scandal in the Philippines, tied directly to climate disaster relief. Simultaneously, India’s annual air pollution emergency has morphed into a profound crisis of governance and public health, fuelled by intense public mistrust.
Ultimately, this landscape reveals that domestic resilience is not merely a constraint on strategy, but the primary battleground. As competition over critical security projects sharpens (such as China’s pressure on Japan), the deepest vulnerability for many Indo-Pacific states lies not in external attack, but in their internal ability to manage public trust and adapt to climate change. Survival will hinge less on alliance alignment and more on whether governments can build the stable foundations required for a volatile future.
As the Indo-Pacific adapts to these shifting dynamics, 9DASHLINE remains committed to providing the in-depth analysis you need to stay informed and ahead.
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FROM AUKUS TO SEOUL: THE QUIET CONSTRUCTION OF AN INDO-PACIFIC UNDERSEA ALLIANCE
By David MacSweeney, Founder at 9DASHLINE
President Trump’s decision that the United States would acquiesce to South Korea’s decades-long request to develop nuclear-powered submarines — announced on 29 October through a social media post — took many by surprise. Alongside Australia, currently involved in its own submarine acquisition through the AUKUS programme, South Korea is now set to become the only other non-nuclear-weapon state in the Indo-Pacific to gain access to the widely envied nuclear-propulsion capability.
While Australia is negotiating its transition from a mediating middle power to a forward-leaning security actor — with the ability to project power deep into the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia — the prospect of South Korea fielding a nuclear-powered capability directly to Australia’s north looks set to create a new north–south arc. This arc could conceivably reshape the region’s strategic map by creating a network of operational options for like-minded partners. France — a key Pacific power with a Pacific Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of 6.8 million square kilometres, and territories stretching from Mayotte on the western edge of the Indian Ocean to French Polynesia — could, in time, work to integrate its current fleet of nine nuclear submarines.
For Seoul, the nature of its threat landscape — and the degree to which an increasing range of issues, including China’s vast and rapid naval expansion, North Korean belligerence, and the risk of a Taiwan contingency, may intersect — means Washington’s decision to enhance the capability of one of the region’s key strategic anchors can be seen as a pragmatic step designed to improve burden-sharing and strengthen deterrence. In the long term, it may also help to offset growing concerns over US naval capacity, though the decision to share such sensitive technology is not without risk.
While neither was conceived as part of an interlocking architecture, the central role of the US in the design and development for both partners suggests a degree of complementarity and interoperability will be designed in. Nevertheless, beneath assumptions of structural, strategic, and political alignment lies a marked divergence in the conditions underpinning each programme.
Australia’s involvement in the AUKUS programme is built upon a political and social environment marked by decades of stable institutions and, critically, bipartisan commitment towards developing nuclear-powered submarines. These conditions are likely to see issues of industrial capacity — and the ability of institutions to address significant domestic unease about a range of issues, most particularly the management and disposal of nuclear waste — resolved over time.
South Korea’s position cannot be viewed with a similar degree of confidence. Trump’s decision to green-light the sharing of some of the US Navy’s most sensitive technologies comes less than a year after Seoul was plunged into a profound, unanticipated, and entirely self-inflicted political crisis. The world watched as Yoon Suk Yeol, then president of one of the US’ key regional allies — host to nearly 30,000 US service personnel — temporarily declared martial law via a late-night TV broadcast, an episode that has seen Seoul spend much of the past year confronting questions of institutional resilience and democratic stability.
While Trump’s move to equip a key ally in a deeply contested region mirrors American approaches elsewhere — such as the supply of advanced defence support to Israel, notably the first country outside the US to receive the advanced F-35 fighter jet — the significant lead time means that, despite taking such a decision so soon after last year’s crisis, the years between development and delivery sometime in the late 2030s may act to mitigate future risk. It can, and should, be seen as a political and strategic signal that the US continues to view South Korea (and Japan) as indispensable regional partners. Despite lingering concerns about American withdrawal from the global stage, including fears for its long-term commitment to the Indo-Pacific, the sharing of such sensitive technology should be interpreted as evidence of that commitment.
Ultimately, for an emerging north–south arc to function effectively and work to deter autocracies seeking to reshape the region in their own image, South Korea must address its domestic concerns and demonstrate the political stability needed to ensure the arc can be operationalised — becoming a key element within the broader democratic constellation — and deliver its full strategic impact.
COP30: EMPTY SEATS, INSINCERITY, AND A FRAGMENTING GLOBAL CONSENSUS
By Luana Correia, Assistant Editor at 9DASHLINE
This year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), held from 10 to 21 November in Brazil, was far from uneventful. Meant to bring together governments, NGOs, and the private sector to discuss global climate action, the conference was interrupted by protests and a fire, before a near collapse of negotiations.
Taking place ten years after the Paris Climate Agreement, where 195 countries pledged to restrict the rise of global temperatures to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, expectations for COP30 were high. The Brazilian hosts framed it as the “COP of implementation”, with the goal of putting into practice commitments made at previous conferences. However, the final deal has drawn widespread criticism for being “empty” and a “moral failure”.
While the final text calls on wealthy countries to triple climate adaptation spending, compromises led to clauses being watered down or omitted. A major point of contention was the creation of a binding roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels, pushed by Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to advance previous pledges. Heavily opposed by oil-rich and fossil fuel dependent nations, the result was a voluntary plan, allowing countries to opt out and continue expanding on fossil fuels.
Though COP30 is not the first conference to face challenges in landing strong agreements, this year proved especially difficult for international climate cooperation. With United States President Donald Trump withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and later declaring global warming a hoax during a UN General Assembly, it came as no surprise that the nation did not send a formal delegation to COP. As the world’s largest economy and a top polluter, the US has previously been a central player in setting the agenda and forging consensus. Its absence, in turn, shifted negotiation balances and emboldened countries with fossil fuel interests to avoid commitments.
Washington’s absence also put pressure on other rich and top emitting actors to fill finance gaps and promote unity. One nation seemingly up to the challenge was Japan, who highlighted their improved contributions and urged countries to take collective climate action. Yet, the absence of new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — following non-attendance of her predecessor Shigeru Ishiba at COP29 — reflects the nation’s low priority for climate action and diverges from Tokyo’s stated enthusiasm.
Similarly, the United Kingdom and the European Union headed this year’s negotiations by expressing support for Brazil’s roadmap to phasing out fossil fuels and by maintaining the importance of swift action. However, on the eve of the conference, the UK announced that they would not be contributing to Brazil’s flagship fund to preserve the world’s rainforests — a surprising turn after their heavy involvement in previous preservation efforts. Only three days after COP30 began, the EU then voted domestically in favour of softening its corporate sustainability law.
While there are indications that rich countries are losing enthusiasm for climate action, emerging countries like China and India are becoming increasingly active on the global stage. The Chinese delegation at COP30 garnered attention through flashy exhibits showcasing their clean energy technology. India’s efforts, on the other hand, were reserved to negotiations, where they emphasised the urgency of climate adaptation. Nonetheless, India is also guilty of not aligning domestic policy with international positions, as reflected in recent cuts to climate spending and consistently insufficient climate action.
Ultimately, COP30 has revealed a fragmenting global consensus and a lack of alignment between words and action, prompting calls for reforms to restore credibility and momentum.
Keep an eye on our blog this December for an article discussing this topic in more depth.
ACROSS THE INDO-PACIFIC
South Asia
The political landscape remains tumultuous and volatile in South Asia. Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) has found former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina guilty of crimes against humanity and, along with her Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan, has sentenced her to death over the crackdown on the 2024 student protests. Dhaka has sought a formal extradition, as both leaders remain in exile in India. Although an extradition treaty exists between India and Bangladesh, relations are strained by the change in government, and exceptions — citing political factors and concerns over legal processes — make it likely that Delhi will continue Hasina’s asylum. The extradition issue is set to dominate the upcoming elections in Bangladesh; banning the largest party, Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, raises concerns over the legitimacy of the eventual results.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Bhutan, using the trip to reaffirm the countries’ close partnership, especially in hydropower, connectivity, and security cooperation. During the visit, Modi also inaugurated the 1,020 MW Punatsangchhu-II hydropower project, which was built with India’s assistance. This signals India’s intent to remain closely involved in Bhutan’s development, particularly in light of China’s growing presence in the region.
Delhi’s annual descent into a severe air pollution crisis, with air quality widely breaching WHO standards, once again triggered court scrutiny and the activation of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP). This year, however, was defined by visible public anger: hundreds protested at central locations, highlighting a health emergency, alleged under-reporting of AQI data, and the unaffordability of private solutions such as air purifiers. These demonstrations — some leading to scuffles with the police and detentions — framed the smog not merely as a seasonal problem, but as a profound crisis of governance and public health, underscoring growing mistrust in official control efforts.
Amid continuing tensions across the Durand Line, the Pakistani air force struck targets in Afghanistan’s Khost province, with Afghan authorities reporting that at least ten civilians, including nine children, were killed. Islamabad argued that it was targeting the anti-Pakistan group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) following deadly attacks in Pakistan’s Peshawar. Kabul’s Taliban government condemned the strikes as a violation of sovereignty and promised a response, signalling the potential end of the fragile ceasefire brokered by Qatar and Turkey after nearly 70 people lost their lives in the October clashes.
Sri Lanka saw the first major street mobilisation against President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s administration, with the opposition rallying to demand lower taxes, reduced electricity tariffs, and accountability for economic mismanagement. Critics argue that the government, elected to end decades of misrule, has instead failed on security and governance while using law enforcement to suppress rivals.
Southeast Asia
Two senior cabinet officials in the Philippines resigned on 18 November, leading some analysts to wonder whether President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will be forced to resign amidst a spiralling corruption scandal tied to flood relief. Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin and Secretary for Budget and Management Amenah Pangandaman were the latest to fall in response to continued unrest as Filipino citizens clamour for greater transparency and relief. President Marcos announced that seven officials had been arrested after a special anticorruption commission identified them in an ongoing investigation. The Department of Finance estimates that up to 118.5 billion pesos (USD 2 billion) were misappropriated in “ghost” flood relief accounts. A series of deadly typhoons which rocked the country in recent months has exacerbated citizens’ outrage against the government, which Filipinos view as inept in the face of environmental crises the country is facing.
The Philippines is not the only Southeast Asian country dealing with catastrophic climate change. Vietnam has experienced 14 typhoons this year, with a 15th forming off the coast as of 26 November. The country has seen record rainfall in recent months, causing flooding and destruction across the country, including the deaths of more than 90 people in mid-November.
Earlier in November, a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia broke down after four Thai soldiers were injured from landmines along the disputed border. In response, Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul suspended the peace deal that the two countries had signed during the 47th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur in late October. US President Donald Trump, who presided over the signing ceremony in KL, is unlikely to suffer the political costs of renewed fighting, however, given his role was largely symbolic.
East Asia
Tensions have rapidly escalated between Japan and China following comments by new Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae on 7 November that a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan — a scenario that would meet Tokyo’s constitutional threshold for military intervention in support of its ally, the United States. Takaichi’s signalling — to both friends and foes — on Japan’s interpretation of collective self-defence marks a notable shift beyond previous strategic ambiguity. Signalling resolve, Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi visited a military base on the southern island of Yonaguni, just 110 kilometres east of Taiwan. Despite China’s pressure, Takaichi’s approval rating stands at 65 per cent, while 60 per cent say her “survival-threatening situation” statement was “appropriate”.
China mounted a multi-pronged pressure campaign against Japan following Prime Minister Takaichi’s 7 November comments. Its Foreign Ministry demanded a retraction, lodged a formal complaint with the UN Secretary-General, and refused leader-level talks. Economically, it suspended purchases of Japanese seafood and group tourism, and declared bilateral trade cooperation “severely damaged”. The campaign also features escalating military activity around the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands, travel warnings for Chinese citizens in Japan, and delayed cultural and exchange programmes, underscoring a deliberate attempt to increase political and economic pressure on Tokyo.
During a call with President Trump, Xi stressed Taiwan’s “return to China” as an “important component of the post-war international order”. Drawing a historical parallel, he added that China and the United States “fought side by side against fascism and militarism” during the Second World War and should therefore work together to safeguard those achievements. For more on Beijing’s attempts to reshape memory of the Second World War and use it for its strategic ends, see this August 2025 Brookings report.
Taiwan has found itself at the centre of an escalating Japan–China confrontation, with little ability to shape the trajectory of the crisis. President Lai Ching-te has criticised Beijing’s retaliation against Japan as a “hybrid attack on regional peace and stability”, urging China to “act with the demeanour of a responsible major power” rather than a source of instability. He also signalled political solidarity with Tokyo by publicly dining on Japanese-sourced sushi. The Kuomintang has taken a markedly different line. KMT Chair Cheng Li-wen warned that Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks risk drawing Japan into a conflict, criticised the Lai administration for “escalatory rhetoric”, and called for closer ties with Beijing. The diverging responses highlight Taiwan’s limited agency and the political divide over how to navigate rising regional tensions.
South Korea has taken several notable steps in its strategic posture this month. Seoul agreed to join the UAE’s “Stargate” AI data-centre project, deepening cooperation with Gulf states and US tech partners. It also proposed talks with North Korea to prevent accidental clashes along the border despite heightened missile activity. Meanwhile, South Korea and Singapore elevated relations to a Strategic Partnership covering security, the green economy, and advanced-technology cooperation, underscoring Seoul’s broader diplomatic diversification.
The Pacific
Australia and Indonesia have agreed an upgraded security treaty to be signed in January, committing both to consult on security threats and deepen defence cooperation. In Canberra, authorities advised MPs and staff in parts of Parliament House to switch off phones, laptops and Wi-Fi during a visit by China’s third-ranking official, Zhao Leji, citing cyber-security concerns and heightened espionage risk. Australia’s Pacific development efforts have suffered a setback after regional leaders voiced disappointment over Australia’s failed bid to co-host COP31 with the Pacific. AUKUS partners have moved closer to finalising Pillar II arrangements on advanced technologies, including AI, undersea systems and hypersonics.
Papua New Guinea’s recent census has put the population at just over 10 million, representing roughly 40 per cent growth since 2011. In the Solomon Islands, Canberra’s AUD 190 million package to expand and equip the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force — including a new sovereign training centre — has seen little progress almost a year after its announcement. Australian officials are still waiting for a detailed Solomon Islands security plan amid sensitivities surrounding the existing security pact with China. Separately, Australia has agreed to fund a second subsea cable linking the Solomon Islands to Google’s new Bulikula system. China has unveiled a record AUD 86 million grant package to Vanuatu, including renovation of the prime minister’s office, widely seen as an effort to counter Australia’s Pacific outreach.
A New Caledonian pro-independence leader says France is deliberately delaying his passport renewal, blocking his return home after his June prison release. Critics say France’s deliberate delay of the New Caledonian leader’s passport may amount to an unlawful restriction on his right to freedom of movement. An Australian Senate report has alleged that Nauru President David Adeang and former president Lionel Aingimea were linked to suspicious multimillion-dollar movements in 2020 tied to a company subcontracted by Canstruct, Australia’s former offshore-processing contractor. Canberra has signed a new AUD 2.5 billion agreement with Nauru to resettle around 350 NZYQ refugees.
The Marshall Islands has become the first country to roll out a nationwide, blockchain-based universal basic income scheme, distributing a US dollar-pegged stablecoin via a digital wallet. At the latest Palau–US Joint Committee Meeting in Honolulu, leaders reviewed radar deployments, maritime domain awareness initiatives, and infrastructure support. The US has deployed advanced radar and prototype elements for a new 360-degree missile-defence shield to Guam. Kiribati launched its Starlink community gateway, dramatically improving bandwidth for remote atolls and easing reliance on traditional satellite and cable links. Samoa’s prime minister has banned the Samoa Observer – the country’s only daily newspaper – from his press conferences, accusing it of inaccurate and intrusive reporting during his eight-week medical stay in New Zealand. Media groups argue the ban undermines democratic scrutiny.
New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has signalled willingness to work with Apia on a petition for visa-on-arrival or visa-free short-stay access for Pacific nationals, pending Samoan backing and administrative cost limits. Tuvalu’s Prime Minister Feleti Teo has used a visit to Taipei to praise the “special” relationship and publicly defy Chinese pressure. China lodged a formal protest with Fiji over the activities of Taiwan’s de facto mission in Suva. Taipei’s office in Fiji has accused Chinese diplomats of coercing Fijian police to remove Republic of China flags and downgrade Taiwan-branded events. China has pledged fresh investment in Tonga as Nukuʻalofa struggles with debt repayment.
New Zealand strengthened ties with Niue by signing a Political Declaration committing them to deeper cooperation on climate resilience, health, and connectivity. New Zealand’s suspension of support to the Cook Islands over concerns that Rarotonga is flagging vessels linked to Russian oil, sanctions evasion and opaque ownership structures continues to strain relations. Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown maintains the registry complies with international rules and indicates his government will continue to act in good faith with New Zealand while commissioning an independent review. New Zealand dispatched a P-8A Poseidon to join US–Japan operations from Kadena Air Base for Indo-Pacific maritime surveillance. China’s Zhao Leji used a landmark visit to New Zealand to call for closer trade ties while cautioning Wellington against security moves that could harm economic links.
THE BEST OF 9DASHLINE
This month, some of our best reads focus on the growing tension between geopolitical fracture and governance crises, analysing how internal political instability and the collapse of global consensus shape regional security choices.
From a wave of digitally enabled, youth-led movements challenging endemic corruption and elite impunity across South and Southeast Asia to the institutional paralysis of ASEAN in the face of the Myanmar crisis, these analyses reveal how democratic aspirations are being constrained by authoritarian norms and a pervasive lack of accountability.
Together, they spotlight a region in which states are forced to choose between the deepening security commitments of major powers and the need to address acute domestic political and economic volatility, underscoring the deep structural risks and trade-offs driving the Indo-Pacific’s highly contested and fluid order.
PEOPLE FOR DEMOCRACY, STATES FOR IMPUNITY:COMPETING TRANSNATIONAL SOLIDARITIES IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
In this insightful article, Dr Yatana Yamahata (9DASHLINE) explains that the regional aspiration for democratic reform is defined by the tension between two solidaristic forces.
Democratic solidarity from below is forged by grassroots movements such as the Milk Tea Alliance and SEAblings, which use horizontal structures and digital platforms to transcend borders and resist authoritarianism. Conversely, authoritarian solidarity from above is sustained by ASEAN’s principle of non-interference, which creates mutual impunity and shields member states from accountability, as demonstrated by the inadequate response to the 2021 Myanmar coup.
This dynamic reveals that democratic aspirations in the region are constrained by entrenched authoritarian impunity.
YOUTH-LED PROTEST MOVEMENTS ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA SEEK A POLITICAL RESET
According to Adhiraaj Anand (German Institute for Global and Area Studies), popular discontent — fuelled by stagnating living standards, corruption, and politicians flaunting wealth — has led to major street mobilisations in countries such as Indonesia, Nepal, and the Philippines this year.
While these movements successfully mobilise and remove incumbents using horizontal, decentralised structures and online tactics (e.g., #SEAblings), their lack of formal hierarchy risks internal fragmentation and a “missed opportunity” to secure the fundamental political reset demanded by younger generations.
DESPITE TRUMP’S RED CARPET VISIT, WASHINGTON HOLDS A WEAK HAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
United States President Donald Trump’s visit to the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur secured noteworthy deliverables, including a Cambodia–Thailand peace deal and trade agreements with several Southeast Asian nations.
According to Dr Hunter Marston (9DASHLINE), despite this apparent “bonhomie” and the signing of a key critical minerals MOU with Malaysia, regional leaders remain anxious, fearing that Trump’s unilateral tariffs and erratic policy choices make their economic growth vulnerable. With the region actively seeking to “de-risk” from the US by diversifying ties with other partners, Marston concludes that unless the United States shifts away from bilateral deals and strengthens its economic strategy, its influence will wane while Asia sets the new rules of the road.
ASEAN, MYANMAR, AND THE CRISIS OF REGIONALISM: BETWEEN CENTRALITY AND IRRELEVANCE
Almost five years after the Myanmar coup, ASEAN faces a legitimacy crisis due to its paralysis despite thousands being killed and millions displaced. According to Aniello Iannone (Diponegoro University), this inaction is not an aberration but the clearest expression of the “ASEAN Way” — foundational principles crafted to shield regime security that now function as constraints and instruments of elite self-preservation.
This “mutual insurance pact” prioritises stability over accountability and is reinforced by the political economy of material interdependence (e.g., Thailand’s gas imports, Singapore’s financial ties). Iannone concludes that ASEAN’s failure risks transforming its centrality into irrelevance, and that its only viable future lies in a strategic reinterpretation of its norms — moving from non-interference to “non-indifference”.
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The Navigator is produced by:
Dr. Hunter Marston, Daniel McIntyre, Luana Correia, Chetan Rana, Dr. Manali Kumar, and David MacSweeney.
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