OCTOBER 2024
POWER PLAYS AND PARTNERSHIPS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC
By Dr Manali Kumar, Editor-in-Chief at 9DASHLINE
Welcome to the October edition of The Navigator — 9DASHLINE’s flagship newsletter, bringing you essential updates from across the Indo-Pacific. The region faces a complex interplay of strategic, economic, and geopolitical shifts, as countries navigate delicate alliances, security challenges, and economic uncertainties to maintain autonomy in an increasingly contested space.
Our two briefs this month focus on Fiji’s renewed foreign policy vision and Europe’s evolving stance on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) amid rising geopolitical concerns. In Fiji, the release of the country’s first foreign policy white paper lays out a vision for an “Ocean of Peace” as Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka positions his nation to navigate intensifying US-China competition in the Pacific. Elsewhere, the EU has taken a firm stance against Chinese EVs, securing member support for new tariffs that reflect deep divisions over trade and relations with China.
Our Across the Indo-Pacific section offers insights into the region’s evolving dynamics. South Asia is navigating both internal challenges and external pressures. China continues to make strategic inroads through high-level engagements in Pakistan and Nepal, while India faces diplomatic fallout with Canada over allegations linked to the killing of a Canadian citizen. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia grapples with ongoing challenges, as leaders seek consensus on Myanmar’s civil war and territorial tensions in the South China Sea. East Asia remains a hotspot, with developments pointing to a more militarized and polarised East Asia, where both regional actors and global powers are preparing for a potential escalation of conflict, particularly around Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula.
Next week will see the release of the latest episode of our podcast The Bridge, produced in collaboration with the European Parliament in ASEAN. This episode will see Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy and Richard Heydarian examine key developments from this month’s BRICS Summit in Russia.
As always, stay tuned to The Navigator for in-depth analysis and expert insights to help you keep pace with the region’s shifting landscape.
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FIJI’S OCEAN OF PEACE
By Connor Fiddler, Research Associate at 9DASHLINE
Recently, Fiji’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs released its first foreign policy white paper, laying a path forward for smaller Pacific Islands amid rising tensions between the United States and China, and calling for peace and prudence. Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Ligamamada Rabukais is well-suited to articulate a strategic vision for the Pacific Islands, given his history of mediating regional peace efforts. In 1998, he brokered a settlement in the Solomon Islands conflict and last year facilitated dialogue between Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape and Indonesian President Joko Widodo.
Fiji’s Ocean of Peace vision reflects Rabuka’s personal commitment to Pacific stability. As the white paper says: “The Ocean of Peace is both an aspiration and a pathway to a regional arrangement crafted by the states in the Pacific Islands Forum but also respected by the other powers of the broader Indo-Pacific region”. Fiji’s foreign policy white paper was released around the time China test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile near Fiji’s waters. While the paper states that Fiji will not take a side between the US and China, Chinese actions have nudged Fiji closer to Washington. In August, Fiji and the US co-hosted the 48th annual Indo-Pacific Armies Management Seminar, gathering senior army leaders from 21 Indo-Pacific countries for strategic discussions on wartime operations.
However, China remains a major influence in Fiji due to its large investments, ranking second in official development finance, while the US is 13th, contributing only 1 per cent of Fiji’s aid. Like many Pacific island nations, Fiji faces the challenge of balancing relations with both powers, but its “Ocean of Peace” vision could help unify the region and strengthen its influence.
EU GREENLIGHTS NEW TARIFFS ON CHINESE EV’S AMID DEEP DIVISIONS
By Ming-Shan Chiang, Assistant Editor at 9DASHLINE
On 4 October, the EU secured sufficient support from its member states to impose tariffs of up to 35.3 per cent on electric vehicles (EVs) from China, on top of the already existing 10 per cent tariff on imported cars. This followed a one-year-long anti-subsidy investigation into EVs made in China and is set to be finalised in November, with the new tariffs expected to take effect in early 2025. In parallel, the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, will continue negotiations with Beijing, leaving room for potential compromises to de-escalate the risk of a full-blown trade war with China, which has already begun retaliating by imposing temporary anti-dumping measures on EU brandy imports.
The voting results highlight the EU’s challenges in reaching a consensus on its policy towards China. Five EU countries — Germany, Hungary, Malta, Slovenia, and Slovakia — opposed the tariffs, while 10 countries, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Latvia, the Netherlands, and Poland, voted in favour. The rest, (12), including Spain and Czechia, abstained. The rationale behind these decisions varies by country. For the Baltic states, which have limited interest in the automotive industry, their support for the tariffs reflects an ideological opposition to communist China, shaped by their history under Soviet control. This is further evidenced by their close ties with Taiwan.
For major players such as France and Germany, economic concerns are more prominent. Germany, as Europe's dominant automotive powerhouse, advocated for cancelling the tariffs. BMW described it as a “fatal signal” for the European car industry, while VW referred to it as the “wrong approach”. China is a vital market for German automakers, accounting for 44.5 per cent of Volkswagen's global sales, 36.6 per cent for Mercedes-Benz, and 33.3 per cent for BMW in 2023. German carmakers are reliant on the Chinese market, as any disruption could jeopardize Germany's export strength and provoke retaliatory measures. In contrast, given French manufacturers have minimal to no sales presence in China, they are concerned that Chinese government subsidies allow its EVs to be sold at much lower prices, creating unfair competition for European carmakers.
As the EU advances its tariff proposal, ongoing negotiations with China will be critical for shaping EU-China relations and the future of the European automotive industry. The divided responses among EU countries reflect differing economic interests and political ideologies, underscoring the complexity of the EU's policy toward China.
ACROSS THE INDO-PACIFIC
South Asia
China made its presence felt in South Asia this month, with Premier Li Qiang ‘virtually’ inaugurating a new Gwadar airport in Pakistan amid ongoing violence and security concerns in Balochistan. He also attended the SCO Council of Heads of Government meeting hosted by Pakistan, with Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar representing India. Both Pakistan and Nepal hosted Chinese delegations this month, seeking deeper cooperation and investment from Beijing. Nepal’s PM K.P. Sharma Oli reaffirmed Kathmandu’s commitment to the ‘One China’ policy stating no “anti-China acts will be allowed”.
President Muizzu of the Maldives met PM Modi earlier in the month to reset bilateral ties, following the ‘India-Out’ campaign. He highlighted the role of Indian tourists in the Maldivian economy, and embraced India’s UPI digital transaction system. However, a park commemorating the China-Maldives friendship bridge was inaugurated in Male as the Maldives continues its balancing act.
In Bangladesh, the interim government is struggling to find its feet. It issued an arrest warrant for Sheikh Hasina for ‘crimes against humanity’ but faces pressure from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) as it has so far failed to notify election dates. It must also prioritise reviving the garment industry, which contributes 85 per cent of the country’s exports, and booked a USD 400 million loss during the protests.
Although India and China agreed on border patrolling to de-escalate tensions along their disputed border, and Modi and Xi held their first talks in five years on the sidelines of the BRICS summit this week, New Delhi is in a tussle with its Western friends. India has recalled its High Commissioner to Canada and other diplomats after Canadian PM Trudeau alleged that Indian government officials were involved in the killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The Five Eyes partners, including the United States and the United Kingdom, have backed Canada and urged India to take the investigation seriously.
Finally, in a historic moment, the UK will hand over sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. The agreement maintains the American military base on Diego Garcia but leaves the Chagossian right of self-determination and the right of return unresolved.
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asian leaders convened in Vientiane, Laos, for an ASEAN Summit focused on the civil war in Myanmar and escalating territorial tensions in the South China Sea, critical issues that affect the bloc's credibility. The summit also included discussions with global powers, including the US, China, and Russia, amid concerns about their regional influence and ongoing conflicts. Additionally, Indonesia's Vice President called for the completion of a code of conduct for the South China Sea by 2026. ASEAN's consensus-based structure limits its ability to exert influence. However, it could become a more powerful force if it can unite on policies for Myanmar's civil war or South China Sea disputes.
Vietnam's National Assembly approved Army General Luong Cuong as the new president, restoring a power-sharing structure among the country's top leaders. This decision alleviated concerns about General Secretary To Lam potentially consolidating power. Analysts believe the return to the power-sharing arrangement may reduce political infighting and stabilise the leadership as Vietnam aims for greater economic ambitions on the global stage.
Chip behemoth Nvidia will announce investment plans for Thailand during CEO Jensen Huang’s visit to Bangkok in December, which could attract further investments in related sectors. This comes amid a surge of interest in Southeast Asia from major tech companies, as the region benefits from improved infrastructure and relative neutrality, with Thailand's Board of Investment reporting a significant increase in investment pledges in 2024.
East Asia
China launched its “Joint Sword-2024B” military exercises around Taiwan just four days after President William Lai’s National Day address on 10 October. These drills follow May’s “Joint Sword-2024A” exercises, which were widely perceived as a response to the content of Lai’s inauguration speech but also appear aimed at routinising large-scale military exercises around Taiwan. Concerns persist that Beijing appears to oppose having even a fragile balance of power in the Taiwan Strait. These exercises provide military training at the tactical, operational, and theatre levels for imposing a quarantine or blockade, and are altering the status quo in the process.
North Korea is sending troops to aid Russia’s war against Ukraine, reported to include 1,500 special forces and 12,000 soldiers, formed into four brigades, according to South Korea’s spy agency (NIS). This comes as North Korea recently moved to blow up a key border road linking it with South Korea. Developments on the Korean Peninsula are feeding into the Russia-Ukraine War and vice versa. There are strong suspicions that North Korea is receiving advanced technology from Russia, including satellite technology. NATO is seeking a “detailed briefing” from the South and President Yoon Suk Yeo said Seoul is considering directly supplying weapons to Ukraine. Zelensky called the deployment a “first step to a world war”.
Pacific
The recent arrival of the Chinese Type 055 destroyer, Nanchang, in Vanuatu marks a significant escalation in China's military presence in the South Pacific. The deployment is part of China's broader strategy to enhance its maritime influence and comes alongside huge investment in infrastructure projects across the region. The US and Australia continue to ramp up military cooperation, with Australia recently hosting US air operations to counter threats to global shipping. US congressional research warns of the risk of cost blowouts for Australia in the AUKUS submarine program.
In New Zealand, a recent investigation has exposed alarming tactics employed by the Chinese Communist Party against pro-democracy activists, including harassment and intimidation, prompting calls for reassessing ties with Beijing. Wellington is under pressure to strengthen its military alliances in the Indo-Pacific and to back its rhetoric with tangible funding and actions. Samoa is dealing with the fallout from the sinking of the HMNZS Manawanui, which has raised concerns about long-term ecological damage to its marine environment. As Apia hosts the 2024 Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, the sinking raises fears about damage to the local ecosystem and the need for Wellington to pay compensation to local fishermen. Unsurprisingly climate-related issues including calls for additional climate finance were among the key topics discussed.
In New Caledonia, the SLN nickel mining site has been placed on ‘standby‘ due to financial difficulties, threatening local jobs and economic stability. Paris has suspended New Caledonia's controversial constitutional reform that led to riots earlier this year. France has recently ordered an underwater deep-sea drone enabling it to surveil critical infrastructure at depths of up to 6,000 meters. The Cook Islands are experiencing significant delays in seabed exploration projects to identify undersea mineral resources vital for economic development. In Palau, debates continue over a proposed easing of fishing restrictions, weighing economic benefits against sustainable practices. Taiwan is working to strengthen its ties with Palau through initiatives promoting marine science education and conservation.
The Northern Mariana Islands have expressed serious concerns regarding recent Chinese missile tests, with local activists urging for enhanced local defence capabilities. Meanwhile, Kiribati condemned China’s recent ICBM launches, viewing them as provocations that threaten regional stability. Elsewhere Australia transferred a Guardian Patrol Boat to Tuvalu.
Finally, the Marshall Islands recently obtained a seat on the UN Human Rights Council, with a focus on the impacts of climate change and nuclear justice. The islands aim to enhance human rights discussions at the UN, providing a platform for Pacific nations to raise their voices on environmental issues that threaten their livelihoods.
THE BEST OF 9DASHLINE
This month, we highlight some of 9DASHLINE's most thought-provoking articles that delve into key emerging geopolitical trends in the Indo-Pacific with substantial global ramifications.
United by cause, divided by politics: Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir
After a decade without assembly elections, Jammu and Kashmir's 90-seat vote generated widespread enthusiasm and significant turnout across the Union Territory this month. These elections are viewed as a public verdict on local leadership and recent policies, with many in the region expressing discontent towards the central government’s actions.
In this article, Dr Nazir Ahmad Mir (Nonresident Fellow at the Hong Kong Research Center for Asian Studies) explores the significance of high voter participation and how unresolved grievances and frustration shape voter sentiment in Kashmir.
Despite doubts, the Quad is here to stay
At the recent Quad Leaders' Summit in Delaware, hosted by President Biden, optimism about the Quad's permanence contrasted with ongoing questions about its future direction and effectiveness. Persistent scheduling disruptions and leadership transitions in the member states, alongside a cautious stance on directly addressing China, raise concerns about the Quad’s long-term commitment and strategic coherence.
Here, Lucas Myers (Senior Associate, Wilson Centre) analyses the Quad’s trajectory in recent years to explore the geopolitical value of the grouping.
Hong Kong’s arrest warrants and bounties and why this matters in the EU
In March 2024, Hong Kong introduced the Safeguarding National Security Ordinance, or 'Article 23 legislation,' which builds on the 2020 National Security Law by adding new crimes and extending sentences to intensify crackdowns on dissent. Despite global criticism of the 2020 law, including from the UN and EU member states, responses to the new law have been more muted.
Anouk Wear (Research and Policy Advisor at Hong Kong Watch) explains why this situation underscores the EU's ongoing challenge in balancing advocacy for human rights and the rules-based international order with China’s increasing influence on global norms.
The fragility of democracy in Thailand and the return of the Shinawatra family to power
The recent dissolution of Thailand’s Move Forward Party (MFP) by the Constitutional Court, on grounds of posing a threat to the monarchy, highlights the fragile state of Thai democracy under the influence of military and political elites. This follows a pattern of political interventions, as seen with the ousting of the Shinawatra family and the earlier dissolution of the Future Forward Party (FFP).
Aniello Iannone (Lecturer, Diponegoro University) examines how despite attempts at democratic representation, Thailand’s "Thai-style democracy" often undermines electoral outcomes through legal and constitutional manoeuvres.
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The Navigator is produced by:
Connor Fiddler, Daniel McIntyre, Chetan Rana, Dr Manali Kumar and David MacSweeney